LOUISVILLE – There will be no time to think, only to react, when the gates spring open for the 125th Kentucky Derby today at Churchill Downs.
As the cavalry charge of 19 3-year-old thoroughbreds hurtles past the stands for the first time, the world’s greatest jockeys will have split-seconds to decide: Do I gun for the lead or take back? Go inside or out?
At stake: the $886,200 winner’s share of the record $1,186,200 purse, a chance at the $5 million bonus for sweeping the Triple Crown, a blanket of roses, a gold trophy, and, most of all, racing immortality.
This year’s Derby, televised live by ABC from 4:30-6 p.m. with post time at 5:27, has more subplots than a soap opera.
The spotlight falls on trainer Bob Baffert, going for a record third straight victory after winning in 1997-98 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet.
Baffert has the top two choices in the morning line. The entry of Santa Anita Derby winner General Challenge, a gelding, and millionaire filly Excellent Meeting is favored at 3-1 despite the fact no gelding since 1929 and only three fillies in history have won the Derby.
Prime Timber, who, like Silver Charm and Real Quiet, was second in the Santa Anita Derby, is next at 7-2.
“General Challenge is the best horse I’ve ever brought to the Derby,” Baffert said, “but he’s going to need luck. The only thing that will get him beat is a bad trip.
“Prime Timber is ready to run the race of his life. And Excellent Meeting is the one who can take the heat and is peaking.”
Gary Stevens and Kent Desormeaux, the two jockeys who won the Derby for Baffert, ride General Challenge and Excellent Meeting. David Flores is on Prime Timber.
Two other trainers will saddle a pair of shooters aiming for their third Derby score of the 1990s. D. Wayne Lukas sends out Cat Thief (ridden by Mike Smith) and Charismatic (Chris Antley). Nick Zito has Stephen Got Even (Chris McCarron) and Adonis (Jorge Chavez).
“I wouldn’t change a thing,” Lukas said. “I don’t know if they are good enough, but neither do the other guys.’
Neither of Zito’s colts won their first race until January.
“But both came around at the right time,” he said. “We’ve got two horses that come off two wins and that’s good enough for me. They’ll be very tough to beat.”
Florida Derby winner Vicar (Shane Sellers) and Blue Grass winner Menifee (Pat Day) are both dangerous even though they break from far outside posts (17 and 18 respectively).
“The post is OK,” said Menifee’s owner, Arthur Hancock III, who’s won the Derby twice before. “It minimizes your chance of getting in trouble. I’ll just leave it in Pat’s hands. He’s the greatest and as the race unfolds he’ll put him where he belongs.”
“All I have to worry about now is getting the saddle on,” Vicar’s trainer Carl Nafzger said. “I’ll throw Shane on and say, ‘Have fun, baby, we’ll see you in the winner’s circle.'”
Several other horses add spice to this Derby stew.
There’s Valhol (Willie Martinez), who after losing his first two starts romped in the Arkansas Derby at 30-1, and whose former rider, Billy Patin, was then accused of using an illegal electric “buzzer” to spur him on.
Another filly, Three Ring (John Velazquez), is expected to set the pace. And when was the last time you saw a 2-year-old champion at 50-1 in the line? That’s Answer Lively, who took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile here last November but hasn’t won since.
The mystery horse is Worldly Manner (Jerry Bailey), whose stablemate Aljabr scratched late yesterday afternoon. Owned by Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Stable, he prepped for the Derby in the desert of Dubai.
Baffert believes the two-minute race could be decided in the first 22 seconds as the horses break from the gate and hustle for good position heading toward the clubhouse turn.
“The Kentucky Derby is not a strategy race,” Nafzger said. “It sounds like Three Ring will go because she drew post 2 but you don’t know what everybody else is going to do.
“That first quarter-mile is the most wonderful thing. No planning can set you up for that. You don’t know who’ll break bad, who’ll break good, who’ll squeeze in, who’ll squeeze out. The riders have to read that. It’s really a jockey’s race.
“Where would I like to be? I’d like to have a :22.1 pace in front of me and I’d be sitting about eight lengths off in seventh or eighth. But that’s where everyone wants to be.”
Expect Three Ring to show the way early, with K One King and Valhol in hot pursuit. General Challenge, Vicar, Stephen Got Even, Kimberlite Pipe and Desert Hero will be in the second flight.
Answer Lively, Cat Thief, Worldly Manner, Excellent Meeting, Prime Timber, Charismatic, Menifee, First American, Adonis, Ecton Park and Lemon Drop Kid follow.
General Challenge moves for the lead on the far turn and Vicar takes up the chase. General Challenge draws clear while Vicar digs in to hold second over Prime Timber, who rallies for third. Menifee, Cat Thief and Excellent Meeting also put in strong late runs.