After a seemingly endless stay in Ozone Park, racing moves today to beautiful Belmont Park for the spring-summer stand that runs through July 25.
Highlights of the meet include the May 29 Met Mile, the June 5 Belmont Stakes, the ”Triple Tiara” for fillies (the June 4 Acorn, June 26 Mother Goose and July 24 Coaching Club American Oaks) and the July 5 Suburban Handicap.
There also will be twilight racing every Friday from June 11 through July 23 with a 3 p.m. first post.
For some help on betting Belmont, we turned to an 87-page crystal ball called ”The Belmont Handicapper: A Horseplayer’s Guide to the Belmont Spring Meet” written by Jim Mazur and Dennis Foley of Progressive Handicapping Inc. with the help of Fran LaBelle of the NYRA press office.
Here are some tips from ”The Belmont Handicapper,” based on statistics from the last few meets.
RUNNING STYLES – Over the last three years, speed has held up better on the inner turf course than on the Widener.
Over the inner, 28 percent of winners went wire to wire (either had or fought for the lead from the start); 45 percent were stalkers (within four lengths of the lead); 27 percent rallied (came from more than four lengths back).
On the Widener, just 19 percent of winners went wire to wire (although that figure jumps to 54 percent in six-furlong grass races); 44 percent were stalkers; and 37 percent rallied.
In dirt sprints (5 to 7 furlongs), 36 percent of winners fit the ”wire” category; 46 percent ”stalk”; and 18 percent ”rally.” On off-tracks (good, muddy, sloppy, wet-fast), speed held up even better.
In dirt routes (1 mile or over), the percentage of ”wire” winners was slightly less, 33 percent (but only 22 percent at 11/8 miles). ”Stalk” was at 45 percent and ”rally” at 22 percent (but rising to 36 percent at 11/8 miles).
Obviously, 11/8-mile races on the main track at Belmont is the one distance where early speed is not an advantage.
TRAINERS – ”The Belmont Handicapper” divides trainers into ”hares” and ”tortoises.”
”Hares” are trainers who win with horses making their first or second start of the meet. These include Frank Alexander, Bobby Barbara, Jim Bond, Dave Donk, Stan Hough, John Kimmel, D. Wayne Lukas, Shug McGaughey, Bill Mott, Linda Rice, Rich Schosberg and Howie Tesher.
”Tortoises” usually don’t win with a horse until he’s had a few outs over the track. Some examples are Rene Araya, Pete Ferriola, Mitch Friedman, Joe Imperio, Gasper Moschera and Leo O’Brien.
JOCKEYS – According to ”The Belmont Handicapper,” the following longshot riders had average payoffs of $16 or more on their winners the past two meets: Joe Bravo, Eibar Coa, Chris DeCarlo, Jose Espinoza, Aaron Gryder, Filiberto Leon, Mike Luzzi, Diane Nelson, Julio Pezua and Jean-Luc Samyn.
In addition to these tidbits, ”The Belmont Handicapper” contains a wealth of statistical information, trainer profiles and more. The price is $21.95. To order call 1-800-272-8039; or visit their website at http://www.proghandi.com.