NEW YORK POST & FOX 5 NEWS EXCLUSIVE POLL
ALBANY – Either Gov. Pataki or Mayor Giuliani could narrowly defeat First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton if the Senate race were held today, a new Post Poll shows.
The survey, from Zogby International of upstate Utica, found Giuliani slightly stronger than Pataki in a race against the First Lady – largely because of the Republican mayor’s greater popularity among heavily Democratic New York City voters.
Giuliani led the First Lady, 49.3 percent to 43.7 percent, statewide, slightly better than the poll’s 3.6 percentage-point margin of error.
Pataki, who after a week of speculation may announce tomorrow whether he’s considering entering the race, led Mrs. Clinton by 48.6 to 44.7 percent, in a survey with a 3.9 point margin of error for that question.
“These results show that entering the Senate race is a highly risky venture for Mrs. Clinton,” pollster John Zogby said.
“I think when you’re a sitting First Lady and you want to run for the Senate you want to look for a situation where you are ahead 2 to 1, not in almost a dead heat against New York’s two major political giants.”
Zogby said Giuliani’s stronger showing in New York City “could translate into his having a slight edge over Pataki in a race against Hillary.
“He’s doing about 10 points better in the city and that could make all the difference in the world.
‘And the fact that the mayor has won twice in New York City would obviously help him cut into a Democratic stronghold.”
The poll found Giuliani doing best in the politically pivotal suburbs, where he overwhelmed Mrs. Clinton 60.6 percent to 31.5 percent.
Giuliani also led the First Lady in heavily Republican upstate areas, 51 percent to 42.1 percent.
Mrs. Clinton led Giuliani among heavily Democratic city voters, but not by the kind of blowout margin Democrats often need to win statewide elections.
The First Lady led the mayor, 58.7 percent to 34.8 percent, in the city, well short of the 68- to 70-percent landslide numbers many Democratic candidates have received in the city in the past.
Mrs. Clinton was also slightly ahead of Giuliani among female voters, 46.9 percent to 45 percent.
Pataki also did best in the suburbs, leading the First Lady 58.9 percent to 30.6 percent, and upstate, where he was ahead 54.7 percent to 40.1 percent.
The First Lady did far better in New York City against the governor than she did against the mayor, leading Pataki, 67.2 to 27.7 percent.
Mrs. Clinton also did slightly better against Pataki among women, besting the governor 48.7 percent to 42.1 percent.
She also won the overwhelming support of African-American voters.
Blacks favored Mrs. Clinton over Giuliani by a whopping, 89.2 to 5.7 percent, and over Pataki, by a near-equally-massive 87.1 to 12.9 percent.
The First Lady also won the overwhelming support of Hispanic voters, but by lesser margins.
Hispanics favored Mrs. Clinton over Giuliani, 62.8 to 37.2 percent and over Pataki, 71.7 to 25.9 percent.
Giuliani led Mrs. Clinton among Jewish voters, 49.9 to 36 percent, while the First Lady led Pataki among Jews, 52.9 to 36.1 percent.
Catholics preferred both Pataki and Giuliani over Mrs. Clinton, 55.8 to 37.8 percent and 53.6 to 39.6 percent, respectively.
Protestants favored both men over Mrs. Clinton as well, although more narrowly.
Pataki beat Mrs. Clinton among Protestants, 48.1 to 46.1 percent, while Giuliani won, 49.1 to 45.2 percent.
Both Pataki and Giuliani led Mrs. Clinton among self-described “independent” voters, who often play a decisive role in statewide elections.
Pataki led Mrs. Clinton 53.2 to 41.4 percent among independents while Giuliani was ahead, 51 to 42.4 percent.
Zogby polled 748 likely voters, Monday through Thursday, on a possible Giuliani-Clinton race.
He surveyed 669 likely voters Tuesday through Friday on a possible Pataki-Clinton matchup.