BALTIMORE – It remains to be seen if, in today’s Preakness Stakes, Fusaichi Pegasus will be what he appeared to be in winning the Kentucky Derby, which is unbeatable.
But no matter what happens in the race, Fupeg will be one thing of which there is already no doubt: unbettable.
“Nary a soul is left alive who bet the rent at 3-5” is the horseplayer’s equivalent of “Even a man who is pure at heart and says his prayers by night … ,” words of pre-ordained and unavoidable doom for anyone foolish to disregard them.
On Wednesday, Pimlico oddsmaker Clem Florio made Fupeg 3-5 in the morning line. Today, the gullible public will push him down to 2-5, or even lower.
Fu-eee on that, I say.
But don’t take my word for it. Take Len Friedman’s. Please.
The hard truth is, a potential Triple Crown winner like Fusaichi Pegasus might be a great thing for the racing industry, which needs all the help it can get, and for the casual horseplayer or for the sports fan who might watch three races a year.
But for the professional, the hardcore player, the guy or gal who analyzes and invests in the performance of racehorses the way others invest in the market, betting so much as a nickel on Fupeg at 2-5 is as dumb as, say, buying Cisco Systems at 67, like I did three weeks ago, before the Nasdaq crash.
To those people, today’s 10th race at Pimlico is a page-turner, something to watch for a minute and 55 seconds, give or take a tick, but not something to bet on.
That is, of course, if you believe that Fupeg is everything he appeared to be in trouncing 18 rivals at Churchill two weeks ago, and, more importantly, that he is capable of being just as dominant again today.
Friedman concedes Pegasus might be as good as he looked, but doubts very strongly that he can or will be that good again today.
It’s all in the numbers.
Friedman and his partner, Len Ragozin – who describes himself as a lifelong Communist while spending his life in that most capitalist of pursuits, making money off the ignorance of other bettors – developed The Sheets, the esoteric rating system of thoroughbred performance that has spawned a cult of followers known as Raggies.
Friedman, Ragozin, and other Sheets disciples, such as Jerry Brown, a former Raggie who spun off into his own system, known as Thoro-Graph, do not come to marvel at the likes of a Fupeg, or to praise him.
They come to beat him, or at least find an animal to do it for them.
And they are betting today is the day to do it.
“I don’t see any way he can run as well as he did in the Derby,” Friedman said. “He just ran two top efforts in a row, and now he has to run a third one within a five-week period. That is a very, very rare thing to happen.”
To men like Friedman, Ragozin and Brown, horseracing is not a spectator sport, it is a business. And no business can stay solvent for very long relying on 3-5 shots.
Nor can many horseplayers stay above water betting on animals to repeat grueling performances every time out. According to The Sheets, Fupeg has now had back-to-back superior performances – he was assigned a numerical rating of 2 for his dominant Derby victory, a number right in line with the performance of Secretariat and other such greats as Spectacular Bid, the same number he was given for his victory in the Wood on April 15 – and history tells them it is time for him to bounce.
No horse has ever been immune to the inevitable decline, not even the revered Secretariat.
The difference is in the timing – Secretariat had his bounce in the Wood, where he ran an awful race, and circled back to top form for the Triple Crown races, which he swept with increasing ease culminating in his 31-length victory in the Belmont, probably the most dominant athletic feat in the history of sports.
According to conventional wisdom, a horse like Fupeg – or, for that matter, High Yield, The Deputy and More Than Ready – came up to the Derby in peak condition, having either just won a big race or run creditably enough in finishing second.
The Raggies, however, are prone to believe just the opposite.
A big effort in the Wood, the Blue Grass, and the Santa Anita or Arkansas Derbies tends to drain a three-year-old, which is why so many of the winners of those races perform poorly at Churchill.
It is acknowledged that three-year-olds often “pair up” their efforts, but so far, Fupeg has been a freak, a three-year-old who has held or improved his form over his last five races.
To Friedman, the horses who are more likely to be ready to give a top effort today are Snuck In, who has had five weeks’ rest since his last race, a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby; High Yield, who had his bounce in Louisville, and Red Bullet, who also has had a five-week rest since running second to Fupeg in the Wood.
He gives no shot to Hal’s Hope, who was used up as the pace-setter in the Derby and now must gun it from post 8 in the shorter run to the first turn at Pimlico. The rest of the field – Captain Steve, Impeachment and Hugh Hefner – don’t appear to have the ability to challenge the other four.
The catch is, Fupeg could bounce and still beat this field, since even in victory, none of them on their best day has been as good as Fupeg on his worst.
“Right now, he’s pretty much comparable to where Secretariat and Spectacular Bid were at this point in their careers,” Friedman said. “Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen … My system says he’s ready to bounce, but who knows? Maybe he’ll end up being one of the top horses of all time It could be, but that still doesn’t make me want to bet him on Saturday.”
He will, however, use Pegasus in exotics, just in case.
The play? Snuck In (20-1 in the ML) to win, with Red Bullet, High Yield and Fupeg behind him in the exotics.
And, oh yeah, do yourself a favor: Play Fupeg on top of Red Bullet on top of everyone, on the remote possibility that once in a while, there is truth in advertising. And, some adherence to form in thoroughbred racing.