JERUSALEM – The biggest question facing Syria’s government may not only be who’s next, but how the death of its iron-willed president will affect the volatile Middle East political picture.
Yesterday’s sudden death of Hafez Assad comes just three weeks after Israel withdrew its troops from south Lebanon. Analysts had watched anxiously to see if Assad would be able to restrain Hezbollah guerrillas – who led the fight to drive Israel out of Lebanon.
“The belief that quiet will reign in Lebanon after the withdrawal from there depends on the desire of Syria to influence, to ensure that quiet and the stability,” Itamar Rabinovich, a former ambassador to the United States who served as head of Israel’s earlier negotiations with Syria, told Israeli television.
Now, “there are question marks over both the desire and the ability [of Syria]” to keep fighting from breaking out, he said.
In the short-term, analysts said yesterday that Assad’s death may affect America’s drive for a comprehensive Middle East peace this year – and probably distract attention from Israeli-Syrian peace talks.
The Clinton administration has made Middle East peace its top foreign policy priority for the last months of the president’s second term. But recently, the U.S. administration has devoted its energies to Israeli-Palestinian talks.
“In the short term, it will reinforce the inclination of Clinton and [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Barak to bet on the Palestinian track at this point,” said William Quandt, a Middle East expert and professor at the University of Virginia.
“Assad’s death brings a lot of uncertainty … so maybe it’s in the interests of all to concentrate on the Israeli-Palestinian talks,” added Shibley Telhami, a professor at the University of Maryland.
Analysts also are watching how Assad’s son and presumed successor, Bashar, approaches stalled talks over the Golan Heights.
Israeli and Syrian leaders last had direct talks in West Virginia in January but could not agree on the extent of an Israeli withdrawal. Clinton then met Assad in Geneva in March and came closer than anyone realized to closing a deal, sources told The Post.
But Assad rejected Israel’s last offer and demanded access to the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee after withdrawal.