THE sun may be shining on alternative energy.
Companies developing non-polluting power technologies — like solar and fuel cells, as well as harnesses for wind and geothermal power — have had successes in Europe. Americans, however, have only just taken notice.
But with Califonia in an electricity crisis and some alternative energy companies having recently gone public, the sector is attracting attention.
Higher energy prices, a push toward cleaner energy and demand for more reliable power — and more of it — has put alternative energy in a good place.
“The long-run success of these companies depends on whether they’re competitive,” said CIBC World Markets analyst Hugh Holman.
Deregulation of the energy and utilities sector is forcing many alternative energy companies to take steps to become more competitive.
Right now, analysts said, companies are busily developing technology, cutting costs and jockeying for position in the marketplace. The key is to take a workable or working idea and make it widely accessible and cost-effective.
“The actual science is very well-known and proven. It’s really a cost issue,” said Eric A. Prouty, senior energy technology analyst at Robertson Stephens.
Solar products are closest to reaching a broad market. They can be used in remote locations that are not connected to a so-called electric grid, which makes them promising for an international market where grids are not as prevalent as they are here in America. Solar batteries also fit into consumer products like calculators and sun-run golf carts.
Barry Sahgal, senior managing director at Brean Murray, compared the potential of solar energy to that of cell phones, adding, “I think that the market has matured sufficiently for certain companies to be profitable.”
One such company is Delaware-based AstroPower, which has a market cap of $TK million and is trading in the $TK range. Last Wednesday, iGo Corp. signed a deal with AstroPower to distribute its solar battery charger, which recharges cell phone batteries. Others in the solar area are Evergreen Solar and Spire Corp. Divisions of bigger companies — such as British Petroleum and Sharp — are exploring solar energy too.
Then there are fuel cells, which produce electricity from hydrogen. The markets caught fuel cell fever early last year, and prices spiked on rumors. After seeing rallies and retreats, many analysts maintain fuel cells’ efficiency could eventually bring down their high initial costs — but it takes time.
“Most fuel cell companies won’t show profit [until] 2003, 2004 at the earliest,” Sahgal said.
Companies working on fuel cells and related products include Ballard Power, Fuel Cell Technologies, Plug Power, H Power and Energy Conversion Devices — and a host of smaller companies as well as divisions of big multi-nationals.
There are more areas of alternative power, like superconductive wires and the flywheel batteries that cleanly convert kinetic energy. Depending on your definition for “alternative,” the sector can also include the more mainstream forms of hydroelectricity and natural gas.
Invest now?
“I don’t know. The outlook for the product is huge,” hedged Gordon Howald, a director at Credit Lyonnais Securities who follows energy stocks.
He made no official recommendation but said the crisis in California demonstrates the markets are short of energy from traditional sources.
“And with demand growing as strong as it has, double to triple the historic rate, they have a big place potentially,” Howald said.
If you do invest, should you target smaller companies, which are better able to focus, or big companies, which have more resources at their disposal? Prouty said either could make “formidable competitors or, on the flip side, very good partners.”
You can keep one toe in the sector with a fund like the New Alternatives Fund, which invests in companies supporting clean energy. The fund rose more than 50 percent in 2000, helped by its investments in big utilities like Keyspan.
The alternative energy sector — highly volatile, and with little product or profit — can resemble the dot-com world, though some analysts dismiss that comparison and point instead to emerging biotechs. But they stress caution, should you try to ride out the wave.
Said Prouty: “We’d have to break out a crystal ball to see who the winners will be.”