The first question you should ask when handicapping any race is, can I beat the favorite?
Over the years, at all racetracks, favorites win about a third of all races. Which means, of course, they lose two out of three times. The key to success, then, is searching for value plays by identifying those 67 percent of races where the favorite is vulnerable.
Here is a point system for doing just that.
We evaluate the favorite using 10 important handicapping factors. For each factor that is a strength – that is, it gives him an edge over the rest of the field, the horse gets two points. If the factor is neutral, he gets one point. The horse gets no points for factors that are negatives – that is, they put him at a disadvantage.
1) Trainer: If the trainer is one of the leaders at the meet, if his barn is hot, if he excels under today’s conditions, etc., that’s a strength. If a trainer can’t find the winner’s circle without a search party, that’s a negative.
2) Jockey: Same criteria as the trainer.
3) Class: Has the horse run well at this class before, or is he dropping into a spot where he fits? That’s a strength. Negative: He’s running over his head.
4) Distance: Track program and Racing Form past performances list each horse’s record at today’s distance. If the horse has an outstanding winning/in-the-money percentage at the distance, that’s a plus. If he’s oh-fer, that’s a minus.
5) Running style: If the horse is lone speed, or a closer in a race that promises a speed duel, that’s a positive. But a speed horse facing other speed horses isn’t.
6) Last race: Was it a strong effort? More important, does the horse figure to improve off it?
7) Speed rating: Sometimes a favorite’s speed ratings in the past performances stand out over the field. Usually they’re in the same ballpark with two or three other contenders.
8) Track: Is he a horse-for-the-course? Or has he never run a good race over the track?
9) Track condition: How does the horse perform over an off-track?
10) Post position: Either an inside or a far outside post can put the horse at a big advantage, or disadvantage.
Favorites who total 20-17 points are virtually unbeatable. Don’t bet against them. Those in the 16-13 point range are solid. Try to beat them at your own risk.
Favorites in the 12-9 point range, however, are vulnerable. Look for someone to beat them. And those registering 9 points or less are mandatory bet-againsts.
Looking at the morning-line favorites for today’s card at Aqueduct, Colonial Dreaming (first race) rates a 14, Cisco Zesty Sauce (second) rates a 10, Max Patch (third) is a 10, Giving Noreen (fourth) is an 18, Sky Approval (fifth) is a 12, Some Irish Legend (sixth) is a 13, Balancethebudget (seventh) rates a 14, Outstanding Info (eighth) totals 11, and So Far So Good also is 11.