ICHIRO SUZUKI can thrive in America, the Mets do not have the talent to successfully defend their NL title and even $252 million shortstops cannot mask pitching inadequacies.
Plenty of questions were answered in the season’s first half. Which simply has left us with more questions for the second half:
1. WILL THE UPSTARTS HAVE A DOWNFALL? – The Cubs and Phillies tied for the NL’s worst record last year, Minnesota had the AL’s worst record. This season they were all first-place teams at the break. Phil- adelphia, with a volatile manager (Larry Bowa) and dubious pitching, is the most vulnerable to plunge.
Fred McGriff, if the deal goes through, should deepen Chicago’s suspect lineup and the pitching, especially in the bullpen, should keep the Cubs, at minimum, contending. On paper, the Indians are better than the Twins. But we thought the same last year about the Indians and White Sox. Minnesota needs a bat (Greg Vaughn?) and/or a bullpen arm (Mike Williams?) to upgrade division title aspirations.
2. WHICH TEAMS MAY BE READY FOR A FALL? – The most common response around the majors is “Boston,” due to its infighting and injuries. But one AL executive said, “it’s a miracle the Red Sox have done what they have done” with all their problems to date, so maybe they will keep on performing, especially if Nomar Garciaparra comes back in full. However, there is suspicion Pedro Martinez’ shoulder is badly hurt and the team is downplaying it until the trade deadline so as not to look desperate for starting pitching.
Interestingly, despite playing .724 first-half ball, the Mariners have not sold the sport on their greatness because of concerns atop the rotation and with lineup depth. Officials note that Seattle GM Pat Gillick is being very active (maybe Shannon Stewart or Jose Cruz Jr. from Toronto), as if he does not believe his club is near a finished product.
3. WHICH TEAMS ARE READY FOR A TAKEOFF? – The Astros and A’s played much better lately and have the talent to make strong playoff runs. Houston ended the first half three games behind the first- place Cubs and a half-game out of the wild card. The lineup is terrific, but it is the potential of young starters Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt and Tim Redding that makes the Astros exciting.
Can they land a veteran starter, left side of the infield help or a bullpen arm to further strengthen what probably is the NL Central’s strongest team? Beware the Cardinals, also, with J.D. Drew returning, especially if Mark McGwire is healthy enough to do damage.
The Mariners cannot be caught, but the A’s were seven games behind Boston in the wild-card chase. Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and – believe it or not – Cory Lidle give the A’s the rotation to make up those games. Will Eric Chavez, Johnny Damon and Miguel Tejada give Jason Giambi more offensive help in the second half?
4. WHO WILL BE THE BEST PLAYER TRADED? – This is connected to the last item. Oakland has two weeks to tighten the wild-card race. If that happens, the A’s will probably not trade Giambi. But if the A’s have made little or no inroads, the free-agent-to-be slugger becomes what an AL executive calls “the difference maker” on the market. The Yankees, Red Sox and Braves become front-runners. The Yanks’ advantage is Nick Johnson, an inexpensive, high on-base percentage, Northern California-bred first base replacement, whom Oakland adores. The A’s also would target Alfonso Soriano and Randy Keisler and Giambi would have to sign a long-term pact now, both are issues that could kill a deal.
If Giambi stays put, major-league execs are saying the Rockies and Blue Jays are the teams most willing to move major pieces. Colorado has Pedro Astacio and Neifi Perez, and Toronto has Cruz, Stewart and Kelvim Escobar. Kansas City’s Jermaine Dye, San Diego’s Sterling Hitchcock, Woody Williams and maybe Phil Nevin, and Pittsburgh’s Jason Schmidt are expected to be shopped aggressively.
5. WHAT ABOUT THE METS AND YANKEES? – The Mets will busy themselves with trying to move the contracts of Rey Ordonez, Steve Trachsel and Todd Zeile while trying to add pieces that make them better in 2002 and beyond.
The Yanks would love to have Orlando Hernandez and David Justice come back productive so they do not have to make a big deal, but they believe Giambi puts them over the top in 2001. And the Yankees are always playing for this year’s championship.