WHAT’S NEXT
Democrats keep looking for a way to score points on the economy – but newscasts stay fixated on the sniper. Analysts ponder sniper’s impact. President Bush stumps all-out, but can he really transfer his popularity?
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
VOTERS HAVE RESERVATIONS
Democrats had hoped Native Americans would be the key to keeping Sen. Tom Daschle (right) in place as chief of the U.S. Senate – by helping his home-state South Dakota protégé, Sen. Tim Johnson (D), win re-election in a state where only about 300,000 people will vote.
But now, South Dakota’s hot story is about charges of voter-registration fraud centered around Native American reservations, where operatives allegedly paid for each absentee ballot by the Democratic Party and activist groups. The incidents of fraud include registering the dead, a 3-year-old girl and people who don’t exist – with at least 400 ballots in question.
The backlash could boost Republican Rep. John Thune, who was recruited by President Bush to run for the Senate.
“Unfortunately, Native Americans aren’t popular everywhere, and this [scandal] could make some voters decide to vote against Johnson,” says a Dem strategist.
The race is a statistical tie, but Thune seems to be edging up in a Bush-loving state.
DEMOCRATIC ANALYSIS
Pollster Paul Maslin
“This election is as tough to call as any I’ve seen. The sniper adds one more layer to this extraordinary sense of apprehension. When people are nervous, they tend to stick with what they know. But it may be a mistake for Bush to campaign so much – it didn’t work for other presidents in midterms. It could backfire.”
REPUBLICAN ANALYSIS
Strategist Ed Gillespie
“In nautical terms, this election is dead calm – not a trace of wind either way. So to win, you have to get out the vote, and we hope this time we’ll match the Democrats. It’s great that the president is out campaigning – it energizes us. Democrats don’t get it, because they had to keep Bill Clinton in an undisclosed location.”
CONGRESS
THE HOUSE: Republicans stay odds-on to keep control.
THE SENATE: Republicans need one seat to take control and are very upbeat about beating Sen. Jean Carnahan for Missouri pickup, and on the hunt in Minnesota and South Dakota . . . GOPers don’t give up on New Jersey, but focus more attention on Georgia, where they’re gaining . . . Dems count on Arkansas pickup, but pickup hopes fade a bit in Colorado and go kerplunk in Texas . . . GOPer Elizabeth Dole’s lead slips in North Carolina.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Bush’s focus now is on revving up GOP voters all over, with quick, multicandidate stops from state to state . . . Meets NATO chief today, then tomorrow stumps in Pennsylvania and Maine . . . Wednesday, he talks at the White House about exploited children . . . Thursday, he barnstorms North Carolina, South Carolina and Alabama . . . Friday, he’s at Texas ranch for summit with China’s president, with North Korea a sure topic.
TEA LEAVES
Dem hopes grow for upsetting Rep. Felix Grucci (R-L.I.), thanks to self-inflicted wound – attack ad against Dem Tim Bishop that backfired . . . Grucci may now be most at-risk House GOP incumbent after moderate Rep. Connie Morella (D-Md.), whose district voted 66 percent for Al Gore . . . Analysts suspect Florida Gov. Jeb Bush risks backlash for skipping daughter Noelle’s drug sentencing . . . President Bush now is more popular in Florida than brother Jeb.