I DON’T believe in the tooth fairy, Santa Claus or the 2004 Cincinnati Reds.
As one AL executive said, “Sean Casey is not a .379 hitter, Paul Wilson is not going to go 22-0 and Danny Graves might have 21 saves, but he’s also allowed seven homers in 27 innings. They’ve got enough talent to finish within 10 games, but that’s about it.”
Talk about killing dreams. The Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of the pennant races, began with the Reds, Brewers, Mets and Rangers – a foursome that all lost at least 91 games last year and finished a combined 99 games under .500 (274-373) and 78½ games out of first – outperforming expected contenders such as the Royals, Mariners, Giants and Diamondbacks.
But is this just a mirage? Remember the Royals were early season darlings last year, breaking out 16-3 before reality and a 67-76 record followed. The Marlins, meanwhile, finished May at 26-31, eight games out in the wild card, and won a World Series. A survey of seven executives and scouts found none believing the Reds, Brewers, Mets or Rangers was a playoff team, with the main snag almost always being pitching.
Of the four, the Mets were nudged closest to contention for two reasons: 1) A diminished NL East. 2) The potential for Jose Reyes to significantly upgrade second base. 3) The finances to add the quality, innings-eating starter they crave.
But one AL GM said, “They need to be sellers, not buyers. They could hurt themselves long-range by doing something stupid now in a year when they really aren’t ready to win anything.” Actually, the main advice was pragmatism; lose now (games and players) to win later. “Teams worry about credibility with fans, and owners talk about selling tickets,” an AL farm director said. “But there is nothing worse than being seduced into thinking you’re a contender when you’re not.”
Consider the 2000 Rockies were 45-33 in July, but privately their baseball officials knew they really weren’t contenders. So they were willing to trade their top starter, Pedro Astacio, to Toronto for a prospect. Ownership, though, not wanting to disenfranchise fans, nixed the deal. The Rockies collapsed over the final two months. The prospect was Vernon Wells.
So the lesson is to thy own self be true. The Reds, for example, actually have their three highest-paid players – Casey, Graves and Ken Griffey – playing well, and should move them if they can. The most interesting possibilities, though, could involve young first basemen. Texas has a load of hitting and a top first-base prospect, Adrian Gonzalez, nearly ready, so one scout said, “I would trade Mark Teixeira if I could get a young, high-end starter.”
Milwaukee top prospect Prince Fielder may be ready early next season, so this could be the time to deal Lyle Overbay, who has performed better than expected, for pitching.
Those surveyed also said they simply do not see the Mets being better than the Marlins or Phillies; the Reds and Brewers being better than the Cubs and Astros; and the Rangers being better than the Angels and A’s.
“I think we all want to dream,” said an NL executive. “But you can’t let the dreams invade reality. The Royals played in a weak division with a 119-loss team, and still didn’t make the playoffs. None of these surprise teams plays in a division this weak. So I wouldn’t be surprised if all four actually end up playing under .500.”