IT was inevitable: The anti-Hillary moment has arrived. Two years before the Iowa caucuses, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is getting beaten up all over the place.
Her days of woe seemed to begin when she compared the House of Representatives to a plantation during a Martin Luther King Day commemoration in Harlem. In the weeks since, a bunch of polls have come out that seem to suggest Democrats ought to take a good look at somebody else for president.
One survey suggests only 16 percent of Americans will vote for her for president. In a head-to-head match-up with Republican Sen. John McCain, she loses by 20 points. Even here in her sort-of home state, polls of New Yorkers suggest they don’t want her to run for any office higher than Senator and that they don’t think she can win any office higher than senator. A article in the New Republic – a very silly article, but one that’s gotten some attention nonetheless – states that because she isn’t wildly popular near Buffalo, Hillary can’t possibly appeal to voters elsewhere.
The wacko Internet Left – the ingathering that has taken to calling itself the “Netroots” – has been expressing its dissatisfaction with her for months now, largely because she hasn’t changed direction and said she was sorry to have voted for the Iraq war and the defense appropriations that have followed it.
In response to attacks, Hillary has tried to shore up her Netroots. She released an incoherent 1,600-word letter in December explaining that even though she voted for the war, she is second to none in her condemnation of the way the Bush people fought the war and failed to secure the peace.
On Tuesday, she voted to support the ridiculous attempt to filibuster the nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court – something she almost certainly wouldn’t have done a year ago, but had to do this time to give the Netroots its props.
And on Tuesday night, she sat stone-faced during the State of the Union Address, refusing to crack even the slightest smile when the president made a fond reference to her husband and his friendship with the president’s dad. She’s been getting some heat for that too.
I am certain that her gracelessness was also deliberate, also a bow to the Netroots. She knew she was being watched, and she wanted to send the message that she wasn’t about to play the Washington game with the hated Dubya.
So is Hillary in trouble?
Oh, excuse me, I had to pause there for a minute because I was rolling around on the floor laughing.
Hillary in trouble? You should have such trouble.
In survey after survey, she is running 20 to 30 points ahead of all other Democrats when it comes to asking whom they will support in 2008. She has already raised $10 million for her Senate run this year without even trying. Since she’ll clearly have no credible competition, she won’t have to spend much of that $10 million – or the $70 to $80 million that may follow it by the time the November election rolls around.
Every cent she doesn’t spend in her Senate re-election campaign will go straight into her Hillary-for-president coffers. Which means she will begin the primary cycle as much as $100 million ahead of any other Democrat.
And nothing could make her journey to the nomination easier than getting into trouble now with the right and with centrist Democrats. The Netroots will rally to her side for that alone, and there will be no room for any Democrat to challenge her.
Don’t buy the hype about former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. He’s being graded on a curve because half the Washington press corps lives in Virginia and knows him. He’s a possibility for vice president, and that’s about it.
Wait? What’s that you say? John – John Kerry? Oh, yeah, he’s got a lot to offer. He appears in those polls in which Hillary garners 40 percent or more. Kerry gets 14 percent.
Kerry would be doing Hillary a favor to run against her, because stuffing the guy who got 59 million votes in 2004 would be a mark of her electoral power come 2008.
So when it comes to counting Hillary out, take my advice: Don’t.