ORLANDO, Fla. – The GM meetings broke up with one deal made – Brad Lidge moving from Houston to Philadelphia for an underwhelming package. Yet executives returned to their home bases believing this is just the beginning.
Already, this offseason two star-level players (Lidge and Edgar Renteria) have been traded. But they are not going to be the last. Florida is almost certain to deal Miguel Cabrera, and perhaps Dontrelle Willis, too. There is some anticipation that at least one ace-level starter from among Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, Scott Kazmir and Johan Santana will be dealt. And in a busy market, Coco Crisp and Miguel Tejada are near sure things to change addresses, as well.
Why?
“Because everyone acknowledges this is a bad free-agent class,” an NL GM said.
This free-agent class is short on talent, but high on demands for expensive contracts.
“When Kyle Lohse is asking for Jeff Suppan money (four years, $42 million), it really motivates you to find answers in the trade market,” an AL executive said. “I think every team at this meeting decided to exhaust every trade option first, and just because of that you are going to see trades.”
An NL executive said, “The lesson of Cleveland, Colorado and Arizona was that you could win with home-grown talent, and so I think teams are going to look inexpensively inside their organizations and then look to trades second as a way to avoid this (free-agent) market.”
The biggest name that is clearly on the market, right now, is Cabrera.
“I think Florida is not only going to ask the moon for him, but the moon and stars,” an NL GM said. “For example, I don’t see how the Yanks get him without including (Joba) Chamberlain. And why shouldn’t they ask for that kind of price? There are big-market teams that need third basemen and have strong farm systems.”
The expectation is that Florida will ask a big price now to see if anyone from among, at least, the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers and Giants will meet the cost. It is possible the Marlins could lower those demands around the Winter Meetings. But a few executives thought the Angels might be able to meet the requirements quicker than others because they badly want to find a hitter to bat behind Vlad Guerrero and because they are willing to be bold as a way to avoid paying the exorbitant free-agent price of Alex Rodriguez.
As for Willis, an NL executive predicted: “He had a good year in 2006 and a bad year last season. I think (the Marlins) will put him on the market as the 2006 guy and if there demands are not met, they will try to build his value up during the (2008) season and then trade him in July.”
There is a pretty strong feeling Oakland’s Joe Blanton will be available.
“I think clubs like San Diego and Baltimore are going to see if they can sign Peavy and Bedard long term,” an NL GM said, “and if they can’t, in a market craving top-flight starters so badly, I think they have to make them available and see what they can get.”
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There were some rumblings the Yankees were interested in Tejada. But a person familiar with their thinking called that highly doubtful. Tejada has some association with the ongoing steroid investigation and the Yanks already have lived – unhappily – dealing with Jason Giambi. In addition, the Yanks are badly trying to avoid expensive, thirty-somethings that already are in decline. And, perhaps most important, the Yanks feel they have to emphasize defense at the position because they are trying to break in young starters and because they recognize that Derek Jeter’s shortstop range has become so limited. They cannot be sure that Tejada can even make the transition from short to third.
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The general feeling was that the Phillies won their trade for Lidge. There was concern if Lidge could handle the small park in Philadelphia and the hostile fan base. But this was about more than Lidge’s great stuff and the tepid package sent back to Houston. This was about the Phillies being able to put Brett Myers back in the rotation where he projects to a 200-inning, 12-15-win man.
“They solved two spots,” an AL executive said. “You can look at it as Philadelphia just got the best free-agent starter in the market.”