That “transition period” Hank Steinbrenner declared for the Yankees in late October lasted about as long as the idea David Beckham would make professional soccer relevant in this country.
Since then, the Yankees have invested approximately $400 million of Hank’s inheritance to re-enlist three players who will play at 33 or older next year (as an aside, happy 38th birthday tomorrow, Mariano Rivera). Britney Spears is moving with as much speed toward Shakespearean theatre as the Yankees are moving toward true rebuilding.
With another $200 million payroll and a positional roster that might have to be carbon dated to determine its age, the 2008 Yankees will remain a “now” team. This is why they must sacrifice even more precious youth – think Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jose Tabata – to land Johan Santana from the Twins.
Would that be painful? You bet. But A’s GM Billy Beane has a philosophy that if you don’t feel pain, it is not a fair deal. That is why only on WFAN can you get Santana for Andy Phillips. On planet Earth, the laws of supply and demand slant heavily toward Minnesota, because prime-age aces get on the market so infrequently nowadays. And here are the Twins willing to deal one of the majors’ three best pitchers a few months shy of his 29th birthday.
To obtain this kind of No. 1 starter (Josh Beckett), the Red Sox had to include a prospect (Hanley Ramirez) who might win a few MVP awards. Yet Boston would never reverse that deal, illustrating what is most precious right now in the majors.
So to keep up with the Red Sox, the Yankees need their own Beckett. The cost is going to be staggering. It should be. And the Yankees should be ready to pay it, in part as a way of protecting the young starters left after this deal.
Because the last thing the Yankees should want to do in 2008 is be forced to push Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and/or Ian Kennedy to inning levels that jeopardize their futures. Right now, the Yankees’ two veteran starters are Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina, and the Yanks know Wang is miscast as an ace and Mussina’s chances of pitching well and/or healthy through a whole season are slim.
So the Yankees could face having to mix all of those win-now positional veterans – many of whom have closing windows of effectiveness – with young starters yet to even prove they can endure an entire major league season. Could they? Sure. But there is as good a chance that one or more regress and need more minor-league seasoning. And even 2008 success could be bittersweet, because evidence shows heavy workloads for pitchers in their early 20s greatly magnifies the probability of arm problems.
In the best-case scenario, the 2008 Yankees would limit their most touted arms to 150-175 innings. That would be difficult even if Andy Pettitte un-retired. But Santana is the kind of horse (most AL innings over the last four years) that eases the burden on the rest of the rotation and a suspect bullpen.
If the Yankees had Santana, Pettitte, Wang and Mussina, they could comfortably regulate innings for the youngsters, plus be better positioned next year when Mussina and Pettitte almost certainly would be gone.
Of course, there is great risk here. The Cardinals traded Dan Haren for Mark Mulder, thinking Mulder would be their Santana. Instead, he got hurt and Haren grew into an ace in Oakland. Could Hughes be Haren? Maybe. Could Santana break down like Mulder? Yes. But the evidence now is Hughes still needs a changeup to be even a No. 2 starter and Santana is a superb athlete with a strong chance of justifying a six- or seven-year commitment at big dollars.
Cabrera is a nice player, particularly because of his defense. But, perhaps, the Yankees could sign Mike Cameron (a pal of Alex Rodriguez’s) for two years of defense, power and speed, and as a bridge to rising prospect Austin Jackson.
Again, this is going to be painful. The Yankees have rejected many requests for Hughes, Cabrera and Tabata. Would they love to substitute Kennedy for Hughes or Brett Gardner for Cabrera? Yes. But if it takes the elite package, so be it. Santana is not some geriatric like Randy Johnson or Kevin Brown, some hope-and-a-prayer like Jaret Wright or Carl Pavano. He is a prime-age ace. He is the toughest commodity to find in the sport. He is worth the price.