With a milestone victory in the 2006 elections and a promising shot at the White House, Democrats are thinking big – a 2008 election that gives them a “mega-majority” to pursue an unchallenged legislative agenda.
Bolstered by a wave of Republican retirements – including announcements this week by Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and Rep. Dennis Hasbert (R-Ill.) – Democrats are pouring resources into 44 House districts and seven Senate seats that are now in Republican hands. Privately, Democratic strategists say that the number of Republican House and Senate seats they are targeting could rise to 50 and nine, respectively, in the coming months.
“The wind is at our backs because the American people want change, and they know Democrats will deliver it,” said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), the party’s chief Senate elections strategist. “It’s too early to make predictions, but we feel good that we’ll be able to add to the Democratic majority in the Senate.”
The Democrats currently hold a narrow, 51-49 lead in the Senate, backed by the support of two independents. But with only 12 seats to defend, compared to 23 for the Republicans, Democrats are quietly optimistic that a nine-seat pick-up could be in the offing.
The magic number is 60 – the number of votes it takes to kill the filibuster and get major legislation passed in the Senate.
But even a seven-seat pick-up – which Democrats see as very realistic – would put them in a position to steamroll the GOP minority, as there would likely be enough moderate Republicans to push through controversial fiscal and foreign policy legislation that has been successfully and repeatedly filibustered by the Republican minority.
Republicans Senate strategists argue that it is very unlikely that 2008 will be a repeat of 2006. With the Democrats now in charge, they do not have the luxury of blaming everything on the GOP. And Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), the presumptive presidential nominee, could drag down Democratic candidates in conservative-leaning areas.
But Senate Democrats clearly have the advantage. They have a 2-1 lead over the National Republican Senatorial Committee in campaign cash, having banked $23.4 million at the end of October, compared to $9.5 million for the NRSC.
In the House, Democratic strategists are convinced they could exceed last year’s 30 seat pick-up and add to their current 16-seat lead. With the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee holding a whopping $266 million cash lead over the National Republican Congressional Committee as of the end of October, the Republicans are going to have a hard time playing defense, especially in seats like the northern New Jersey 7th Congressional district, which is located in the expensive New York City media market and is held by retiring Rep. Michael Ferguson (R); and southern New Jersey’s 3rd district, located in the almost-equally expensive Philadelphia market and held by retiring Rep. Jim Saxton (R).
House Republican strategists see one glimmer of hope. Congress’ low approval ratings – even below President Bush’s lousy ratings – prove that Democrats may have as much to fear as Republicans, GOP strategists say.
“As multiple public approval surveys have shown, the American people have quickly realized the consequences of a Democratic majority,” said U.S. Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the GOP’s top House elections strategist. “They are in a firing mood and our Republican challengers will be in an excellent position.”
The Senate
49 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucus with the Democrats), 49 Republicans
* In 2008, 35 seats up for election
* 23 Republican seats (including 6 retirements)
* Democratic goal: 9 seat pickup, for 60 total
Heavily targeted races for the Democrats include:
COLORADO
Incumbent: Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring.
Long a Republican bastion, Colorado has trended Democratic in recent years, with Democrats last year picking up the governor’s office and solidifying their control of the state legislature. Allard’s decision to retire would appear to give Democrats the edge here heading into 2008. The two candidates running for this seat are U.S. Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former U.S. Rep. Bob Schaffer (R). Schaffer has run a smart campaign thus far, but if this race boils down to money, Udall gets the edge. He has almost $2 million more in campaign cash on hand than Schaffer, and Washington Democrats will probably have more money to spend on this race than their Republican counterparts.
MAINE
Incumbent: Sen. Susan Collins (R)
Like the rest of New England, Maine has tilted Democratic in recent elections. Democrats have recruited the solid U.S. Rep. Tom Allen (D-Maine) to challenge Collins. However, early polls of this race show Collins with a significant lead over Allen. And, her voting record on the Senate floor is decidedly moderate: the senator has voted on the liberal side of economic, social and foreign policy matters over 50 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Collins closed the third quarter of this year with a $3.1 million to $2.1 million fundraising lead over Allen.
MINNESOTA
Incumbent: Sen. Norm Coleman (R)
Coleman hasn’t committed an offense that warrants his firing, but politically, his days could be numbered. His support for the Iraq war and Minnesota’s tendency to support Democratic presidential candidates has put his brief career in the Senate in jeopardy. Coleman is raising plenty of money, but both Democratic primary candidates attorney Mike Ciresi and comedian and former Air America talk show host Al Franken are shaping up to be formidable candidates. Don’t laugh: Franken is raising money at a healthy clip and getting plaudits for his seriousness. Meanwhile, Ciresi is choice of some establishment Democrats, partly because he is wealthy and would presumably be able to spend some of his personal fortune on the race.
MISSISSIPPI
Incumbent: Sen. Trent Lott (R) intends to resign by the end of 2007.
Lott’s sudden and unexpected decision to leave his seat five years early is a perfect example of the trouble facing Senate Republicans heading into 2008. Not only are several of the seats they are defending competitive, but seats they should not even have to worry about are now on the block. In fact, Mississippi is now the second state to feature two Republican-held Senate seats that are up for election next year (Wyoming is the other.)
The Magnolia State leans Republican. Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) is expected to cruise to re-election in 2008. Theoretically, the GOP should have nothing to worry about. But if former state Attorney General Mike Moore (D) gets in the race, analysts say things could get tight. If not, Republicans can probably breathe a sigh of relief.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Incumbent: Sen. John Sununu (R)
Sununu has two big problems: his state has undergone some significant demographic changes since he was first elected to the Senate in 2002 and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Historically a Republican state, New Hampshire has undergone a leftward shift since 2002; and Shaheen, whom Sununu beat in 2002, has a large lead over the Senator in early polls. Sununu has already raised more money for this campaign than he spent in his entire 2002 race. But if the Democrats can succeed in tying the Senator to President Bush, it could be curtains for him.
NEW MEXICO
Incumbent: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring.
Domenici is an icon in New Mexico, and had he run for a seventh term his seat would have been off the table for Democrats. But failing health would not allow him to weather another campaign, let alone another six-year term. Domenici’s retirement helped convince U.S. Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) to vacate his secure position as 3rd district Congressman to run for Senate. Udall is New Mexico’s former two-term attorney general. His name identification is high and his favorable ratings are equally good.
But don’t count out the Republicans. New Mexico is a battleground state that went for President Bush in 2004, and the eventual GOP nominee (either U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson or U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce) could pull off the upset.
OREGON
Incumbent: Sen. Gordon Smith (R)
Oregon voted for Kerry in 2004, and Emerald State Democrats are doing their best to point out that Smith is a partisan Republican, most notably through a special Web site (stopgordonsmith.com). There’s just one problem: Smith is not among the more partisan Senate Republicans. In 2006 he voted conservative on economic issues just 53 percent of the time; social issues, 60 percent of the time; and foreign policy issues, 46 percent of the time.
Smith’s burgeoning campaign coffers could also give him a boost. He closed the third quarter with over $4 million in the bank, compared to just $211,000 for state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D), who is the favorite of establishment Democrats. Merkley also must first get by Democratic primary opponent Steve Novick, an attorney.
VIRGINIA
Incumbent: Sen. John Warner (R) is retiring
Warner’s decision to retire represents another case of bad timing for the Republicans. If the popular 80-year old Senator sticks around for another term, he’s re-elected in a walk. Now well-liked former Gov. Mark Warner (D), who is not related to the Senator, has a major lead in the polls over former Gov. Jim Gilmore, the likely Republican candidate. This race could be the closest the Democrats come to a sure thing in 2008.
The House
233 Democrats, 2 vacancies (replacements will be decided Dec. 11), 200 Republicans
* In 2008, all 435 seats up for election
* Democrats hope to increase their majority and are concentrating on 44 races. Republicans, meanwhile, will be looking to flip back seats that went to Democrats in 2006 in the wake of legislative scandals. Four seats the GOP are targeting:
FLORIDA
16th District
Located in between Miami and Tampa
Incumbent: Tim Mahoney (D)
Rep. Mark Foley (R) and his text messages to Congressional pages opened this seat to a victory by Mahoney. It happened too close to the election for the Republicans to get anyone else on the ballot.
But even the write-in GOP candidate gave Mahoney a run for his money, and this time around, Republicans expect their crowded primary field to yield a solid candidate. Bush won the district in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote.
KANSAS
2nd District
Eastern Kansas, including the state capital of Topeka
Incumbent: Rep. Nancy Boyda (D)
Liberal Boyda rode last year’s blue wave into Congress in this conservative district in part because her opponent, long-time Rep. Jim Ryun (R), had worn thin with voters and ran a lackluster campaign. Ryun, a medal-winning Olympic runner, and Kansas Treasurer Lynn Jenkins are in the GOP primary. However, Boyda’s authenticity, and her hard-line opposition to illegal immigration, could make this a difficult seat to flip back.
PENNSYLVANIA
10th District
Northeastern Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Christopher Carney (D)
Carney won a narrow victory over incumbent Rep. Don Sherwood (R) after news broke that Sherwood had cheated on his wife, and physically abused his mistress.
Next year, Republicans believe this district (which re-elected Bush with 60 percent of the vote) will fall back.
Because the district is such solid GOP territory, multiple Republicans are battling in the primary for the right to take on Carney next November.
TEXAS
22nd District
Suburban Houston
Incumbent: Rep. Nick Lampson (D)
Lampson, who had served four terms before he was redistricted out, benefited from several setbacks suffered by Republicans in the run-up to the 2006 general election. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) had resigned, and a lawsuit prevented Republicans from replacing him. The GOP was forced to field a write-in candidate.
Republicans have a crowded primary and hope a strong candidate will emerge in a district Bush won in 2004 with 64 percent of the vote.
David M. Drucker is a staff writer for Roll Call.