A win won’t be a win for Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania unless she takes a significant bite out of Barack Obama‘s lead in the popular vote, independent experts say.
To do that, the New York senator will have to capture anywhere from 55 to 60 percent of the vote April 22 – and beat Obama by at least 7 percentage points, says Franklin & Marshall College public-affairs professor Terry Madonna.
The Keystone State’s upcoming primary is a critical hurdle Clinton must overcome to stay in the race. She’s favored in most polls, but Obama has cut her March lead of 17 points to four – 47 to 43 percent, according to the latest Zogby survey.
“There is an outside chance Obama can win, but he’d have to have huge margins in Philadelphia, the suburbs and Lehigh Valley,” says Madonna.
Clinton backers hope overtaking Obama in the popular vote tally will convince undecided superdelegates to back her.
Obama currently has 1,415 pledged delegates to Clinton’s 1,251, according to RealClearPolitics.com. .