EA IS HOPING TO AVOID A ‘MADDEN NFL’ HIT

With Electronic Arts’ $2 billion bid for rival Take-Two Interactive still up in the air, investor focus on the video-game giant is about to shift to the health of its biggest franchise, “Madden NFL.”

The latest edition of the hit series, “Madden NFL ’09” arrives in stores tomorrow and analysts will be keeping a close eye on how sales hold up against previous editions, which have collectively sold 70 million units over the past 20 years.

EA is hoping to reverse a downward trend. Last month, EA CEO John Riccitiello cautioned that pre-sales for the game are slipping, mirroring a trend seen with its “NCAA Football ’09” title.

Sales of “Madden NFL ’08” sold more than 1.8 million units in its first month and went on to sell more than 6.6 million, according to NPD. But compared with the year before, first-month sales were down 6 percent and full-year sales were off 14 percent.

“The near-term movement of the stock will clearly be dependent on Madden sales,” said UBS analyst Ben Schachter in a recent note to investors, noting that year-over-year growth will be key.

The sports line includes such established hits as “NCAA Football” and “Tiger Woods.” The company is also seeking to expand with more titles for Nintendo’s popular Wii and is launching a new brand called Freestyle for casual gamers.

EA shares, which are down 20 percent since Jan. 1, closed Friday at $46.65.