BRIAN Cashman shunned a trade last winter for Johan Santana essentially for this reason: He did not think it was the proper moment in an ongoing renovation process to invest the level of prospects and dollars necessary to obtain even someone as special as the left-handed ace.
He was looking toward when the farm system had a little more time to grow and the payroll had a little more time to decrease to make such a bold move. In other words, he was waiting until now.
The Yanks have roughly $88 million in salary potentially vanishing, and Yankees officials already are building toward a consensus how to use those dollars. Based on multiple interviews the initial plan looks like this:
1. Sign at least one and, preferably two, starters from among free agents CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe.
2. Re-sign either Mike Mussina or Andy Pettitte.
3. With the rotation deepened by free agency, use pitching prospects in particular to obtain a prime-age, high-ceiling player at first or in the outfield. Then use minor trades or free agency to address other areas.
As one Yankees official said, “No plans ever go how you expect.” And you can see how problems could arise in filling those rotation needs. Sabathia and Lowe have a West Coast preference, and Sabathia favors the DH-less NL. Burnett is friends with Carl Pavano, and his chum is not exactly an “I love New York” kind of guy.
Conversely, the Yanks must worry about Sabathia’s heavy workload. Lowe is 35 and the last time he pitched in the AL East as a 2004 Red Sox he had a 5.42 ERA (but he also won the clincher in each round during Boston’s Curse-defying championship). Burnett may share more than a Marlins past with Pavano. He may only push himself for big money. Consider that he has exceeded 200 innings three times: The year before becoming arbitration eligible and both seasons before he was eligible for free agency.
But as a way to gain a window into their offseason thinking, let’s give the Yanks essentially the rotation they desire: Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte (Mussina is leaning stronger toward retirement), Wang and Chamberlain.
The Yanks want a deep rotation because it gives them a chance to win any game. Nevertheless, it also allows the Yanks to potentially form a Triple-A rotation from among Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez, Chase Wright, Alfredo Aceves and Phil Coke.
In four of the past five years, major league teams have used between 302 and 304 starters. That means 10 per team on average. So you better imagine a functional second rotation when building a team.
By force feeding Hughes and Kennedy last year, the Yanks not only put unready youngsters into 40 percent of the rotation, they also left themselves with such poor depth that Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson had to eventually become answers. The Yanks want to make sure Hughes, Kennedy and all their prospects earn their way to the majors from now on and also that there is young depth at Triple-A to counter the inevitable performance or injury issues.
Also by fortifying with free-agent starters, the Yanks believe they can more comfortably trade from the minor league stockpile now than they could last offseason with Santana.
The Yanks still envision Hughes blossoming as a high-end starter. But for an attractive first baseman, center fielder or right fielder, the Yanks would consider moving any youngster not named Chamberlain. What will make someone attractive to the Yanks: 1) under 30; 2) athletic and sound defensively; 3) controllable into the future; 4) a well-rounded offensive game that preferably includes plate patience.
It has been assumed the Yanks will look specifically for a center fielder. But they anticipate limited options, having learned already that, for example, Pittsburgh’s Nate McLouth will be near impossible to land. So they would consider having Johnny Damon as the primary center fielder with Brett Gardner and/or Melky Cabrera around to play often enough to keep Damon’s legs fresh.
That allows another year to evaluate if Gardner is for real and/or if Cabrera can rebound from a poor season, while also determining if top prospect Austin Jackson at Triple-A is ready for 2010.
The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier, Philadelphia’s Jayson Werth, and Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez all fit the desired mode. So might Florida’s Jeremy Hermida, a talented player who has yet to fulfil expectations. The willingness of the Yanks to include Hughes and/or Robinson Cano in conjunction with a surplus reliever or two should open many doors.
Currently, the only way the Yanks intend to chase a major positional free agent such as Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira is if they are shut out on pitching and have to consider building in a different way and/or the dismal economy drives down prices (which is possible).
If the Yanks, however, can sign free-agent starters and trade for that young outfielder then they will pursue smaller trades and/or free-agent signings for a first baseman, with an eye on competent offense and sure defense. They could see if the White Sox have soured on Nick Swisher, who struggled this season, but has a good eye, defensive versatility and is a switch-hitter.
Nick Johnson’s agent, Rex Gary, said his client will be completely healed by spring training after right wrist surgery. The Nationals owe Johnson $5.5 million and probably don’t want to pay that on a risk. The Yanks know on those rare occasions when healthy, Johnson takes pitches and can defend well. In a pinch, the Yanks could try to form a platoon between free agents Kevin Millar and Doug Mientkiewicz.