BY TIM BONTEMPS
The countdown is on.
With 20 days remaining until Selection Sunday, the time is now for teams to make their final impressions on the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee if they want to find themselves in this year’s field of 65.
The Post is going to help you keep track of who’s in and out of the tournament. We’ll break down each of the six power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC), as well as the potential at-large teams from the rest of college basketball.
By our count, the big six conferences have locked up 19 of the 65 available spots on the dance floor. In addition, the Atlantic 10 (Xavier), Conference USA (Memphis), Horizon (Butler) and West Coast (Gonzaga) each have a bid locked up, and then you have the 12 teams that should feel comfortable about their position.
There are 21 remaining conference champions, but at-large bids could be freed up if a locked-in team wins their conference tournament. So the real debate should come from a pool of roughly 30 teams fighting for the remaining bids, which could be a few as nine spots and as many as 18 depending on how things fall come Championship Week.
With the explanations out of the way, it is on to the Watch.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Locks: North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College
Should be in: Florida State
On the bubble: Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech
While the top four teams are jockeying for seeding position, the middle of the ACC will determine whether the conference ends up with as many as eight teams or as few as five. Boston College moves into the lock column after their win against Florida State, and the Seminoles shouldn’t be too far behind.
Thanks to its improbable comeback win against North Carolina in College Park Saturday, Maryland pushed itself back into the at-large picture. They missed another big opportunity last night, when they dropped a close game to Duke. After losing three straight, Miami knocked off BC at home Saturday, and need to sweep their final three games at Virginia and Georgia Tech and home against N.C. State to keep their hopes alive.
Virginia Tech did itself a huge favor with its last-second win over Clemson Wednesday. Now they host Duke and North Carolina and finish up the regular season with a trip to Tallahassee. A win or two there, and they likely will find a way into the dance.
Big East Conference:
Locks: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should be in: Syracuse, West Virginia
On the bubble: Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
Despite the fact that Syracuse has lost six of their last eight games, their overall profile (including non-conference wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis) should get them into the tournament this year. West Virginia should move to the lock category if they can go to Cincinnati and win tonight.
Providence gave itself a huge boost Tuesday night with its win at home against No. 1 Pittsburgh. Cincinnati needs to do the same against West Virginia tonight and Syracuse this weekend. After beating Rutgers last night, Notre Dame has to go at least 2-1 in its final three games (@ Connecticut, Villanova, St. John’s) to give themselves a chance.
With their loss to Louisville Monday, Georgetown gets the boot from the list of potential tournament teams.
Big XII Conference:
Locks: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should be in: Texas
On the bubble: Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Kansas State
With its win over Oklahoma Saturday night, Texas has just about wrapped up a tournament bid. Oklahoma State has a chance to help themselves in a big way when they host the Longhorns Saturday night.
Texas A&M continued their late-season run with a thrilling buzzer-beating win at Nebraska to greatly enhance their at-large chances. The Cornhuskers still have some chances down the stretch, but Tuesday night’s loss could really come back to haunt them.
Kansas State must bounce back from a blowout loss @Missouri with matchups against Nebraska and Oklahoma State to have a chance. to At 4-8 in the conference, Baylor drops off the list after losing to a bad Iowa State team Tuesday night.
Big Ten Conference:
Locks: Michigan State, Purdue
Should be in: Illinois, Ohio State
On the bubble: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan
Although the Big Ten doesn’t have the Q Rating that the Big East or ACC does in college basketball circles, a deep pool of solid-to-good programs has a chance to give the Big Ten as many as eight bids.
Illinois may be in already, and should be fine unless they drop their final three games of the regular season. Ohio State’s improved its standing with a win against Penn State, and with another against Purdue this week, they should be alright as well.
Wisconsin thrust itself right into the middle of the bubble picture with five straight wins before Saturday’s loss at Michigan State. With back-to-back games against fellow bubble residents Michigan and Minnesota next week, the Badgers could play as big a role in determining the number of Big Ten teams to make it as anyone.
Minnesota travels to Illinois tonight in a game the Golden Gophers could really use, while Penn State missed an opportunity with its loss to Ohio State on Tuesday. Michigan’s hopes were dealt a serious blow yesterday, when the Wolverines lost in overtime to Iowa on Sunday. They play host Purdue tonight, and really need a win.
Pac-10 Conference:
Locks: Washington, Arizona St., UCLA
Should be in: California
On the bubble: Arizona, USC
Cal has to feel pretty good about its chances right now, and could sow things up with a good week against USC and UCLA this week.
Arizona, like Wisconsin, has been on fire lately to push themselves back into the discussion. The Wildcats, winners of seven in a row before a close loss to arch-rival Arizona State on Sunday, has two more chances to pick up signature wins over the next two weeks, at Washington and home against Cal.
USC, on the other hand, could do itself a lot of good to run the table in its final four games. If they can win at Cal tonight, the last three games (at Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State) should make that doable.
Southeastern Conference:
Locks: LSU
Should be in: None.
On the bubble: Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee
Only LSU can truly feel safe about their position at this point, as the Tigers have now won 12 straight in SEC play. Despite a gaudy 21-7 record, Florida’s schedule really lacks heft outside of an early season win at Washington. The Gators missed a chance to change that when they lost a close game in Baton Rouge on Tuesday night.
South Carolina, on the other hand, took advantage of their big game this week, drubbing Kentucky in Columbia last night. Kentucky, despite sweeping Tennessee, could use a win against LSU this weekend. After losing to Tennessee last night, we dropped Mississippi State from the bubble, while the Volunteers look to be in pretty good shape now.
Atlantic 10:
Locks: Xavier
Should be in: Dayton
On the bubble: Temple, Rhode Island
The Flyers are on the cusp of being a lock, and just missed a chance to sow things up last night when they lost at Rhode Island on an overtime buzzer beater. Temple, meanwhile, has taken care of business against the lower-half of the A-10 of late, winning five straight. If they can continue to beat the teams they are supposed to down the stretch, a loss at Dayton Saturday wouldn’t hurt their chances much.
After coming close against Duke, Providence and Oklahoma State earlier this year, Rhode Island gave themselves a huge boost last night in beating Dayton. They now have a great chance to end the season with a 23-8 record and a bye in the A-10 Tournament.
Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be in: Utah, Brigham Young
On the bubble: San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico
While they’re currently aren’t any locks in the Mountain West, the conference is in great position to put three or four teams in the field of 65.
With seven straight wins, and nine in their last 10, Utah is nearing lock status. They can put themselves there for sure with wins against UNLV or BYU this week. BYU had been on a similar roll before dropping a heart-breaker in Las Vegas Saturday. A win at home against Utah Saturday would likely push them in.
San Diego State lost to BYU Tuesday night, and now really need to knock off UNLV in its season finale. Speaking of the Runnin’ Rebels, wins against Utah and San Diego State would likely push them to lock status; beating one of them would be a big help.
After blowing out San Diego State Saturday, New Mexico has one big test left against Utah, sandwiched by winnable games against Wyoming and Colorado State. Wins in all three would push Steve Alford’s program to 20-10.
The Best of the Rest:
Locks: Memphis, Gonzaga, Butler
Should be in: Utah State
On the bubble: Davidson, Siena, Creighton, VCU, St. Mary’s
Despite a weak non-conference slate, outside of a win over in-state rival Utah, Utah State has run away with the WAC, and has pretty much locked up a bid. If the Aggies can knock off Nevada Saturday, they will move to the lock column.
Davidson really could have used Saturday’s BracketBuster against Butler. They have been tripped up lately by The Citadel (without Stephan Curry) and Charleston in Southern Conference play, and are no lock to win their conference tournament. They absolutely must win their final two games in the regular season against Elon and Georgia Southern.
Siena probably has the strongest profile of any of these teams, and a loss to Niagara in the a possible MAAC Tournament final likely wouldn’t keep them home – assuming they take care of business against Niagara and Canisius in their final two games of the regular season.
St. Mary’s did themselves a ton of good beating Utah State in Saturday’s BracketBuster, as they continue to play without their best player, point guard Patty Mills.
Creighton has now won eight straight, including a BracketBuster win over George Mason, and has put themselves into the at-large conversation. However, it probably is going to take a conference tournament win for them to make it to March Madness, as the Missouri Valley is probably a single-bid league this year.
Same goes for the equally competitive Colonial, where Virginia Commonwealth didn’t do itself any favors with a heart-breaking loss at Nevada in their BracketBuster. The Rams have same nice wins on their resume, including San Diego State and New Mexico, but it will likely take an automatic bid to get them in.