The Twins didn’t have a lot of time to celebrate yesterday’s play-in victory over the Tigers. They come to New York as decided underdogs to the best-in-baseball Yankees in the American League Division Series, which begins today at the Stadium. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the series:
CATCHER
Jorge Posada vs. Joe Mauer
Posada remains an elite backstop, and it’s been another strong year for the possible Hall of Famer. But this is probably the only AL catcher to whom he would lose a matchup, because Mauer has been the AL’s best player this season. Jose Molina will catch A.J. Burnett’s starts and sub for Posada late defensively. Either way . . .
AVG HR RBI
Posada .285 22 81
Mauer .365 28 96
EDGE: Twins
FIRST BASE
Mark Teixeira vs. Michael Cuddyer
Terrific matchup here, though it would have been better if the Twins still had Justin Morneau. Cuddyer, however, has been spectacular down the stretch, with 10 homers and 29 RBIs since the start of September. Still, Teixeira — probably the Yankees’ MVP — crushed the Twins this year (.483 with four homers) and does it offensively and defensively. Can he perform in The Bronx in October?
AVG HR RBI
Teixeira .292 39 122
Cuddyer .276 32 94
EDGE: Yankees
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano vs. Nick Punto
Cano has had a rebound year overall, while Punto was atrocious against the Yankees this season (3-for-21). Punto had a strong final month, but he had one homer and 38 RBIs this season to Cano’s 25 and 85, respectively. Cano wins this one in a rout.
AVG HR RBI
Cano .320 25 85
Punto .228 1 38
EDGE: Yankees
SHORTSTOP
Derek Jeter vs. Orlando Cabrera
An in-season arrival from Oakland, Cabrera is experienced and actually drove in more runs than Jeter (77 to 66). But Jeter has been sensational this season. And you all know The Captain’s October resume, whereas Cabrera has been a .202 career postseason hitter other than in one series — the 2004 ALCS, where he hit .379 with the Red Sox.
AVG HR RBI
Jeter .334 18 66
O. Cabrera .284 9 77
EDGE:
Yankees
THIRD BASE
Alex Rodriguez vs. Matt Tolbert
Honestly, that’s the matchup. Do we even need to discuss this one? The switch-hitting Tolbert hit .232 for the season but was better down the stretch, batting .333 in his last 21 games. Of course, he had seven RBIs during that stretch — A-Rod had seven in one inning on Sunday.
AVG HR RBI
Rodriguez .286 30 100
Tolbert .232 2 19
EDGE: Yankees
LEFT FIELD
Johnny Damon vs. Delmon Young
Last year’s ALCS MVP was Matt Garza, who came to Tampa Bay in a trade for Young. The former No. 1 overall draft pick hasn’t produced at a superstar level and never has been in the playoffs, but he’s talented and has been red hot recently (.386, four homers, 17 RBIs in his last 17 games). Damon, a free-agent-to-be, could be going into his final postseason as a Yankee. But he showed this year he could still play. And he’s certainly October-tested.
AVG HR RBI
Damon .282 24 82
Young .284 12 60
EDGE: Yankees
CENTER FIELD
Melky Cabrera vs. Denard Span
Brett Gardner could see time in center for the Yankees as well, but either way, he and Cabrera still come up a little short here. Span is a good player who gets on base (.392 OBP) and steals bases. The Yanks held him down during the season (.207 average) and they’ll need to keep him off the bases again, with Mauer behind him.
AVG HR RBI
M. Cabrera .274 13 68
Span .311 8 68
EDGE:
Twins
RIGHT FIELD
Nick Swisher vs. Jason Kubel
The switch-hitting Swisher has good at-bats, draws walks, has power and is postseason-experienced. The lefty-swinging Kubel, though, paced the Twins in RBIs (103) and delivered 28 homers. One thing is, however, he was far better against righties than lefties, which could mean he struggles against CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte or perhaps sits completely.
AVG HR RBI
Swisher .249 29 82
Kubel .300 28 103
EDGE: Even
DESIGNATED HITTER
Hideki Matsui vs. Jose Morales
Matsui will play against either lefties or righties, and he is another Yankee who could be entering his final postseason. The Twins have been mainly using Morales, even though he had only 119 at-bats in the majors this year. By the way, he didn’t have a home run.
AVG HR RBI
Matsui .274 28 90
Morales .311 0 7
EDGE: Yankees
BENCH
Gardner or Cabrera would be a bench asset, especially Gardner as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Molina could start behind the plate, while Jerry Hairston Jr. and Ramiro Pena can sub anywhere and Eric Hinske is a power threat. Twins have Carlos Gomez as their Gardner — speed/defense — with backup catcher Mike Redmond and utility infielder Brendan Harris. With no Morneau, however, the depth is lacking a bit.
YANKEES AVG HR RBI
Gardner .270 3 23
Molina .217 1 11
Hinske .242 8 25
Hairston Jr.. 251 10 39
TWINS AVG HR RBI
Gomez .229 3 28
Redmond .237 0 7
Harris .261 6 37
EDGE: Yankees
STARTING PITCHING
If it had been the Tigers, the Yankees would have had to worry about Justin Verlander. If it had been the Twins of two years ago, they would have had to worry about Johan Santana. Instead, it’s Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano.
Yep, that’s right. Sabathia has a poor postseason track record and Burnett doesn’t have one at all. But especially with Pettitte against lefties Mauer and Kubel, it’s still a better crop than the Twins.
YANKEES W L SO ERA
Sabathia 19 8 197 3.37
Burnett 13 9 195 4.04
Pettitte 14 8 148 4.16
TWINS W L SO ERA
Duensing 5 2 53 3.64
Blackburn 11 11 98 4.03
Baker 15 9 160 4.37
Pavano 14 12 147 5.10
EDGE: Yankees
RELIEF PITCHING
Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the postseason (ahead of Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan), and Phil Hughes might be the best set-up man in the postseason — though he has to prove he can pitch the eighth in a playoff game. Can Joba Chamberlain have an impact too? Nathan is sensational, Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier have been good and Jose Mijares (.155 avg. against lefties) is your lefty. Pretty good, but not as formidable as the Yanks.
YANKEES W L SV ERA
Rivera 3 3 44 1.76
Hughes 8 3 3 3.03
Chamberlain 9 6 0 4.75
TWINS W L SV ERA
Nathan 2 2 47 2.10
Rauch 7 3 2 3.60
Guerrier 5 1 1 2.36
EDGE: Yankees
MANAGER
Joe Girardi vs. Ron Gardenhire
This will be Joe Girardi’s first time managing in the postseason, and while he’s been a Manager of the Year and has postseason playing experience, this is a little different. Ron Gardenhire never has been to the World Series, but every year the Twins are either in the playoffs or contending for it. He never has beaten the Yanks in the postseason, though.
EDGE: Twins
INTANGIBLES
The Yankees have home-field advantage and they have been the best home team in baseball. And they also come in fresh and without having been under must-win pressure for the last few weeks. The Twins are hot and the pressure’s on the Yanks now, but the Yanks took all seven games against Minnesota this year — though six were decided by one or two runs.
EDGE: Yankees
PREDICTION
Like they did in the ALDS against the Yanks in 2003 and 2004, the Twins will make it tough. Especially without Morneau, however, the Yanks have too much.