NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
VIKINGS-SAINTS
Saints -3½: MGM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood opened at 3½ before moving quickly to 4, then back to 3½.
“We took early money on the Saints to make me believe the public was gonna be on the Saints, so we went up to 4,” Rood said. “I moved to 4 an hour or two after I opened it on Sunday. Tuesday night I had a sharp player take the 4 with me and went back to 3½. Unfortunately we took a very sizeable wager on the Saints minus 3½ from a valued casino customer — I’m sitting there right now, knowing the 4 is desirable to the sharp players.”
How sizeable was the bet on Saints minus-4?
“In excess of half a million,” Rood said. The other large bet? “$100,000,” Rood said.
The general masses like to lay points with the favorite.
“If they like the dog, they usually take the moneyline,” Rood said.
Most of the moneyline bets are of the $100, $200 and $300 variety. “The moneyline’s coming in on both dogs, a little more so on the Jet moneyline than the Vikings,” Rood said.
Rood opened the Over/Under 53½ before dropping to 52½.
“Early in the week, what the sharp money does is bet the Under,” Rood said. “In championship games, the public usually bets Over.”
Avello opened 4 before dropping to 3½.
“They brought Brett Favre in for this game right here, to win this game and continue on to the Super Bowl,” said John Avello, director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort. “They feel this game is up for grabs and if you’re getting 3½, you’re getting value.”
Avello opened the total 52 before moving it to 53.
“I’m getting a little push on the Over,” he said. “My feeling has always been, in playoff games, the teams will play a little tighter. But with the Saints, they just come right out of the chute just firing.”
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
JETS-COLTS
Colts -8: Avello opened at 7 ½.
“We just went to 8 this afternoon,” Avello said Thursday.
Amazingly, there is now a Rex Ryan factor.
“Last week’s game was one of the strangest playoff betting games I’ve ever booked,” Avello said. “I opened 9½, went all the way down to 7, then all the way back up to 9½ by game time. We had all Jet money early, we had all San Diego money late. But you get a lot of numbers exposed that way.
“If San Diego was a 9-point favorite over the Jets, the Colts should be a similar number. But you have to allow for the Jets’ showing last week (a 17-14 win). You have to allow for the coach having ’em highly motivated. You have to allow for the game that they played the Colts just a couple of weeks ago. Maybe not 9 — it needs to be over 7. 7½ [is] a good betting number. I knew I would get Colt money early. You never know which way it’s gonna go late.”
The Peyton Manning factor attracted that early money.
“You got a guy here that’s polished, against a guy [Mark Sanchez] that’s brand new,” Avello said. “This guy’s on a short leash, there’s no doubt about it.
Rood opened 7 before moving to 7½.
“The deeper a Cinderella as an underdog gets in the playoffs here, the more they start picking up on the Due Theory — they’re eventually not gonna play above their head.”
Rood said he feels Sanchez will have to raise the level of his game.
“They’ve gotta open it up a little bit more,” Rood said. “They gotta do something to move the ball a little bit more against the Colts. Then again, the Colts don’t need a lot of time to do damage –ask the Dolphins.”
The sharp money was playing a waiting game.
“I didn’t expect sharp money to show up until I got off the 7,” Rood said. “They may have no desire to take the points either. This could just be a public game.”
Rood opened the Over/Under 40½ before dropping to 39.
“Easily the shortest total the Colts have been involved in all year,” Rood said.
Avello opened the total 41 before dropping it to 39½.
“So obviously the bettors are looking at this as a very similar game to last week [Jets-Chargers],” Avello said.
No props for Jets
John Avello, director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort, gives The Post his best up-to-the-minute guesstimate for potential Super Bowl lines: Vikings 3 over Jets; Saints 4 over Jets; Colts 3 over Vikings; Colts 3 over Saints
The best matchup for Super Bowl proposition bets would be Saints-Colts.
“The Jets are the worst team to make props on,” Avello said. “They got a quarterback [Mark Sanchez] who throws for a hundred, hundred and a quarter, hundred and fifty a game, and they have two running backs, and one [Shonn Greene] has taken over. As far as receivers on the Jets, I don’t know which ones I’m using.”
Avello makes the Jets 6-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Colts are 6-5, the Saints 2-1 and the Vikings 7-2.