1. Every once in a while, in his ceaseless attempt to be publicly positive, Joe Girardi actually ends up being quite negative without exactly realizing it. Before yesterday’s game, for example, in an attempt to defend Javier Vazquez, Girardi said that pitchers do not always have their good stuff, and pointed out how much difficulty CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes had with their stuff and command in Baltimore.
But here is the thing: Sabathia and Hughes both mixed enough fortitude and savvy to navigate without their best stuff. Despite giving up 11 hits, Sabathia still lasted 7 2-3 innings and permitted just three runs. Hughes walked four and struck out only two, but nevertheless yielded just one run in 5 2-3 innings.
Vazquez, however, has blown up in just about every start this year, unable to find that fortitude/savvy mix to get him through this period with a level of competence. Girardi’s comparison, therefore, was damning, not exonerating. Heck, if you want to leave Sabathia out of this, I get it, after all, he is one of the majors’ best pitchers. But Hughes is a decade younger than Vazquez.
So I was thinking about that going into the Yankees’ series finale against the White Sox, and Hughes’ impressive start moved me to write this column about how Hughes’ confidence is fueling his already good stuff to play up better and Vazquez’s lack of confidence is hurting stuff that is down, in large part, because of a limp fastball.
Hughes said it is a blessing that he was not sent down at the end of May last year when he was removed from the rotation when Chien-Ming Wang returned from injury. Instead, Hughes went to the bullpen and dominated as the Yankees’ eighth-inning man. He saw how he could overwhelm with a well-placed fastball and stay off the barrel of the bat when behind in the count with his cutter.
He says he noticed that when he threw pitches with conviction that, somehow, even his bad pitches were not tattooed quite as often. He believes that pitchers give off something with their body language to hitters when they trust their stuff; and, obviously, Vazquez has no trust in his stuff or himself right now, and hitters are feasting.
Hughes did not like that he had walked 11 batters in his first 18 innings over three starts before yesterday. So he was determined to limit his walks. So he aggressively fired his fastball for strikes early in counts. The result was 19 first-pitch strikes against 25 batters and an incredible 11 0-2 counts. What was just as impressive was how he maintained his fastball at 92-95 mph from first pitch to the 99th.
Forget about a No. 4 or 5 starter. So far this season, Hughes looks like something far better than that.
2. Another point I made in the column is that the Yanks have had to employ patience for various reasons with Hughes, Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner, and right now they are enjoying the dividends of that patience.
One of the keys to the dynasty during the Joe Torre years was that the Yanks brought Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera to the majors, and they were instantly All-Star level players. They barely had apprenticeship periods. Jeter and Rivera had cups of coffee in 1995, but by the time they became full-timers in 1996, they already were laying tracks on Hall-of-Fame careers and Pettitte was already one of the majors’ better lefty starters in 1995, his first full season.
In a way, that group spoiled the Yankees. This has never been a particularly patient organization since George Steinbrenner bought the franchise, and the quick genius of Jeter/Pettitte/Rivera only furthered that impatient penchant. In recent years, as GM Brian Cashman’s fingerprints have been put on the team, the club has found the ability to take a deep breath and, for example, endure the maturity issues of Cano and see him blossom into possibly the best hitter in the AL.
But I wonder if the Yanks will regret not being patient with Austin Jackson. Now it is unfair to make a judgment a month into a season, especially with Granderson now expected to miss another month with a groin injury. And especially with Jackson enjoying a dynamic first month. Right now, Jackson has a .527 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and that is simply unsustainable, so that .367 average – second in the majors to Cano’s .387 – is probably going to fall significantly (Cano’s BABIP, for example, is .365). Meanwhile, Jackson’s 34 strikeouts – the AL-high – could be revelatory over the long season.
However, within the first month there has been some stuff to suggest Yankee problems with the deal. For example, they thought Granderson was going to be the better defender than Jackson, but scouts who have seen both this year are not sure of that. Granderson still has a tendency off the bat to not get a great read on flyballs. Also, the Yanks figured Jackson would hit for a better average than Granderson over time. But they also thought they could improve Granderson’s batting average by getting him to be more competent against lefties.
But before going on the DL, Granderson was at just .161 vs. lefties this year with 11 strikeouts in 31 at-bats. That was even worse than the .183 with 42 strikeouts in 180 at-bats last year.
Let’s see if I can finish this thought in item 3.
3. There were many reasons that the Yankees refused to include Hughes as part of a trade for Johan Santana, notably that the Yanks thought their organization would be better if they kept their prospects out of that trade and used just money to buy Sabathia a year later.
Privately, however, there was another reason: The Yanks believed that dollar for dollar, Hughes would turn out to be more valuable than Santana over the life of Santana’s $137.5 million Mets contract. That seemed folly in 2008 when Santana finished third in the Cy Young voting and Hughes tanked his way out of the rotation. But slowly Hughes is rising and Santana is showing signs of fading somewhat with both his health and his stuff.
Again, let’s not over-react to small sample sizes. But Sunday was an interesting day as Hughes dominated the White Sox and Santana collapsed on national TV against the Phillies, losing a game the Mets were hungry to win because early in this season it would have given them a series over Philadelphia and a continued hold of first place.
Santana’s contract runs through 2013 with an option in 2014, and Hughes can be a free agent after the 2014 season, and here is a question to ask: Starting today, who would you want more through 2013 or 2014, Santana or Hughes?
I think we may see the same thing Jackson vs. Granderson. The Yanks thought Jackson could eventually become as valuable a player as Granderson, a little better batting average, less power, but somewhat similar. But concerned about losing lefty power (Johnny Damon/Hideki Matsui) and always having an eye on winning this year, the Yanks jumped out for Granderson with the price of Jackson. They control Granderson through a 2013 option year.
It would not surprise me if Jackson turned out to be the far greater value between now and 2013,