President Obama, who famously belittled American exceptionalism, now finds himself in a toe-to-toe competition for world leadership with second-tier powers.
Yesterday, Washington circulated among UN Security Council members its proposed resolution to impose new sanctions on Iran. The move was clearly timed as a response to Tehran’s latest move on the diplomatic chessboard: A day earlier, the presidents of Iran and Brazil and prime minister of Turkey signed a pact that will plainly enable Iran’s nuclear drive.
In other words, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — with an assist from Brazil’s Lula da Silva and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan — is dancing rings around the Obama team.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Ambassador Susan Rice did their best yesterday to sing the praises of the proposed UN resolution. Rice stressed that it is the fruit of long, “hard work” of negotiations among the five permanent Security Council members, who now fully endorse the proposal.
With the backing of veto-wielding China, Russia, Britain and France, America is now closer to imposing a fourth round of sanctions on Iran. This would include further global restrictions on Iranian arms imports and on Revolutionary Guard-run financial institutions, tighter inspections of cargo on ships traveling to and from Iran and help in denying insurance to nuclear-related shipments.
But at their core, the new sanctions would merely expand on three resolutions that so far have failed to end Iran’s pursuit of nukes. Worse: A united Security Council supported those resolutions; now, at least three of the council’s 15 members oppose any new sanctions.
Two of them, Brazil and Turkey, just inked that deal with Iran. (Brazil “will not engage” in sanctions discussions at the council, its UN ambassador, Maria Viotti, told reporters yesterday.) Another member, Lebanon, can’t sneeze without permission from the Tehran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah. Uganda and perhaps two other council members also bear watching.
President Obama came to office promising to heal America’s relations with the world after all the damage done by his “cowboy” predecessor. Now he’s about to fail at something Dubya managed three times — to unite the most prominent international body on the burning issue of Iran sanctions.
The issue is larger than Turtle Bay power politics. Brazil is a member of a group of second-tier powers that Turkey also hopes to join: BRIC, for Brazil, Russia, India and China — growing nations that seek a 21st century niche for themselves as alternatives to America’s world leadership.
Unlike the other BRICs, Brazil (for now) isn’t a nuclear power. Instead, Lula sees himself as purveyor of diplomatic “solutions” like the one he offered on Monday.
But it was a solution for Iran — not for the effort to stop the mullahs’ quest for nukes. And it was the Obama administration that opened the door for it
US officials say the new Tehran pact differs greatly from a similar deal that Obama praised and endorsed last October. But the differences aren’t in quality, but quantity. The Bush team had insisted on absolutely no Iranian enrichment of uranium — and had gotten the Security Council to endorse that principle three times. The October nuclear-fuel “swap” deal broke that line, accepting some enrichment as kosher.
I’ve been predicting the Brazilian-Turkish deal for weeks, as have others. Didn’t Washington see it coming?
From the start, Obama’s Iran policy has relied far too much on carrots, essentially dropping any sticks. Rather than hint at military action or gathering a “coalition of the willing” to sanction Iran while the Security Council debated, America put all of its punitive eggs in the UN basket.
But at Turtle Bay, even in the Obama era, suspicion of America’s world leadership runs rampant. Emerging powers like Brazil and Turkey rule here. It’s their arena.
So now what? In a month or two, America will likely get some Iran-sanctions resolution passed. But Turkey, Brazil and other like-minded countries, after asserting their diplomatic leadership, are now more likely than ever to undermine the sanctions regime.
Early on, Obama told a reporter that he believed in American exceptionalism — just like Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism or Brits in British exceptionalism. His presidency has approached the world in the same way — letting America’s leadership erode as other world-leading wannabes flex their muscles.
But if the Brazils and Turkeys can take the driver’s seat on important issues like Iran policy, we can say bye-bye to America’s exceptional past and hello to Iran’s nuclear future.