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Doomsday Dow

By
Paul Tharp
Published May 21, 2010, 4:00 a.m. ET

And Wall Street thought its long, miserable summer was behind it.

Investors around the globe are bracing for a summer of great discontent — if not an outright disaster, by some accounts — amid signs that Europe’s debt problems, and the worries associated with them, are spreading throughout the globe.

Indeed, the pandemic outbreak of panic over the global debt crisis is keeping many investors on the sidelines as they wait for signs of hope in a gathering storm.

“The path forward is not clear — it’s treacherous,” said Chris Murphy, president of Goliath Partners. “The debt loads of our government and others, too, are becoming overwhelming.”

Veteran hedge fund strategists were almost unanimous in their warnings of likely worst-case scenarios, and were piling up hoards of cash to withstand any upheavals in the coming months.

Their fears, which had been muted in Wall Street’s recent spate of hopeful stock rallies, grew louder following yesterday’s stock rout that wiped out the year’s entire gains in stocks and yanked the lid off a global economic rot underneath.

“It’s a disaster, to be frank,” said one fund chief. “Odds are getting very high for a massive event this summer. There are red flags everywhere you look.”

Several hedge fund executives said Europe’s debt crisis, which is eroding the euro, was just one of many danger zones threatening to drag down the US outlook.

Economies of China and Japan also were at the edge of trouble and could get pushed over along with Europe’s, they said.

“This is going to get worse before it gets better,” said one source, who, like most of his colleagues, was reluctant to have such dire outlooks attributed to him.

“The world is going through horrendous changes — it’s very difficult to make long-term investments,” said Goliath’s chief Murphy.

Meanwhile, traders raced to place bets to protect their shaky positions, tripling such transactions across all the exchange-traded funds.

“Uncertainty has people stampeding for the exits,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ.