FIRST BASE
IKE DAVIS: The Mets’ new cleanup hitter has been impressive, but he’s still just a month into his major league career, and this will be his first Subway Series. Has been pretty consistent, though this will be the rookie’s biggest stage yet.
MARK TEIXEIRA: The All-Star switch-hitter is still not completely on track, but is faring far better than he did in April. Some of his numbers are still ugly, though at some point he’ll get going, and he’s still superb defensively.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
SECOND BASE
LUIS CASTILLO: He had a decent enough season last year, but this season Castillo’s numbers are similar to his 2008 debacle. Castillo also has some bad Subway Series memories to erase, thanks to last year’s game-losing, dropped pop-up.
ROBINSON CANO: He had a scorching April, but has had just a middling May. However, it looks now like he might be heating up again (he had four hits on Wednesday). Either way, he’s one of the Yankees’ best hitters and on pace for his best year yet.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
SHORTSTOP
JOSE REYES: Reyes has been an enormous disappointment. He has failed to make an impact with his bat, he has been shifted around the order and he’s still looking for his first home run. He missed last year’s Subway Series.
DEREK JETER: The Captain has been in a major slump for the last few weeks. He is homerless this month and has stolen just one base in May. Still, it’s probably only a matter of time before he breaks out. Neither player is having his best season, but Jeter has been far more consistent than Reyes.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
THIRD BASE
DAVID WRIGHT: A matchup of two All-Stars, but Wright has had a season full of strikeouts and struggles in the clutch. His fielding has been shaky too. His power is back from last year and he certainly still is capable of a great stretch.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: His early-season struggles are behind him, and he’s now hitting homers, driving in runs, etc. He has delivered clutch shots and has been sound defensively. The fact is, there likely is no third baseman he’d lose to in a matchup.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
LEFT FIELD
JASON BAY: You know who absolutely destroyed the Yankees last year when he was with Boston? Yep, Bay. He batted .392 with three homers and 13 RBIs against them in 14 games. But Bay has been an unmitigated disappointment in his first season in Flushing. He has been streaky and has had too little power.
MARCUS THAMES/RANDY WINN: If his sprained ankle allows him to play, the righty-hitting Thames will be the likely starter tonight and Sunday with the Mets pitching lefties Hisanori Takahashi and Johan Santana. Winn is likely to get the nod tomorrow against righty Mike Pelfrey. Neither is a star, but Thames has hit pretty well. Still, this is the Mets’ one advantage.
HALE’S EDGE: METS
CENTER FIELD
ANGEL PAGAN: Carlos Beltran’s replacement has been very solid, emerging as one of the Mets’ more reliable hitters and not hurting them defensively. Pagan is no longer leading off, but he’s a threat in the back half of the lineup.
BRETT GARDNER: In probably the Yankees’ biggest surprise this season, the speedster has become a valuable player, moving from left field to center and emerging as an important offensive component. In Gardner’s first game at Citi Field last year, he had five hits and a homer.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
RIGHT FIELD
JEFF FRANCOEUR: This will be the first Subway Series for Francoeur, who has been a non-threat since his hot start. He is superb defensively, though, and has hit .333 (9-for-27) against the Yankees in his career.
NICK SWISHER: Now that Swisher has returned from his left biceps problem, the Yankees’ outfield is in far better shape. The patient switch-hitter has had an excellent season and affords his team some lineup flexibility.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
CATCHER
ROD BARAJAS: He has been a welcome surprise this year, thanks to his power, and now he’ll get his first Subway Series experience. Henry Blanco could catch one of the games, though with no day games after night games, manager Jerry Manuel doesn’t need to rest anybody.
FRANCISCO CERVELLI: Because Jorge Posada is on the disabled list with a broken foot, it’s up to Cervelli. He’s not that experienced, but is very good defensively and has hit well, especially with runners on base. Call-up Chad Moeller could start a game this weekend.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
STARTERS
HISANORI TAKAHASHI gets his first major league start tonight, and it’s not an easy opponent or atmosphere. The Mets’ best shots come tomorrow and Sunday when they start MIKE PELFREY and JOHAN SANTANA. Last year, though, Santana was rocked by the Yankees in The Bronx.
Pelfrey and Santana are the Mets’ two best starters, but they might not get the edge in either matchup, with PHIL HUGHES going tomorrow and CC SABATHIA on Sunday. JAVIER VAZQUEZ, fresh off a good start in Detroit and a relief win against Boston, has a big outing tonight.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
RELIEVERS
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ and PEDRO FELICIANO aside, the Mets’ best reliever has been Takahashi, but now he’s in the rotation. Rookie JENRRY MEJIA has been fine, but facing the Yankees won’t be easy. FERNANDO NIEVE has fallen off, and OLIVER PEREZ shouldn’t pitch unless Manuel really wants to get crazy.
MARIANO RIVERA remains the best closer in baseball, though the rest of the Yankees’ pen has been erratic. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN has had a bad week, DAMASO MARTE is hardly lights-out and CHAN HO PARK, DAVID ROBERTSON and BOONE LOGAN have not distinguished themselves. Still, with Rivera, the Yankees win this matchup.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
BENCH
The Mets have a good backup catcher in HENRY BLANCO and an intriguing new hitter in CHRIS CARTER. ALEX CORA has played well lately and FERNANDO TATIS offers righty power. GARY MATTHEWS JR. has been an outright disaster.
The biggest weakness on the Yankees right now might be their bench, thanks to a slew of injuries. Whoever doesn’t start between Winn and Thames is the best available backup, and JUAN MIRANDA is a lefty threat. CHAD MOELLER, RAMIRO PENA and KEVIN RUSSO round it out.
HALE’S EDGE: EVEN
MANAGER
JERRY MANUEL: There’s a chance that this could be Manuel’s last Subway Series. His team is in last place in the NL East, and it’s hard to feel inspired about the current crew. Manuel has to be aware of the pressure, and he has managed at times with desperation and at times without conviction.
JOE GIRARDI: There’s a lot to like about Girardi’s work so far. He is organized and intelligent, and his team plays hard, with smarts and guts. He clearly has the better team this weekend. And he clearly is the better manager.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES
INTANGIBLES
The Mets have been stellar at home (14-8) this season. That said, it won’t be a complete home-field advantage because there will be plenty of fans rooting for the visitors. The Mets have a lot of bad things hovering over them right now, especially with Manuel. It’s hard to see that as a plus.
The Yankees are beaten up, though they still will come into Flushing with their rotation intact, their bullpen almost entirely intact (minus ALFREDO ACEVES) and most of their elite hitters intact. They will have just played two difficult series against Boston and Tampa Bay. But there’s no reason to expect a letdown, considering the Subway Series atmosphere.
HALE’S EDGE: YANKEES