It seems a foregone conclusion that “Toy Story 3” will far surpass “The Incredibles” as Pixar’s best opener ever, but the bigger question is whether this superb sequel can wrest the crown for an all-time animated bow from “Shrek the Third.”
Most prognosticators are predicting that “Toy Story” will open somewhere between the $121 million that “Shrek the Third” collected this same weekend in 2007 and the $108 million mark set by “Shrek 2” three years earlier. But keep in mind that animation is one of the more difficult genres to predict via advance audience tracking surveys.
“Toy Story 3” not only has a huge built-in audience spanning several decades and a massive Disney marketing push, but it will benefit from much higher ticket prices than prevailed at the time of “Shrek the Third.” At most locations, theaters will collect a 3-D surcharge and it’s also being shown in IMAX, which pockets nearly $20 for adult tickets in Manhattan and L.A. And kids finished school in most of the country this week. That’s not even counting the people curious to see if this is really a Holocaust allegory.
So I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb when I say I think the prognosticators are being too conservative — this will not only be Pixar’s biggest opening (“The Incredibles is in the No. 4 position, after “The Simpsons Movie,” with $70.2M) but the largest animated opening, ever (at least before you adjust for ticket prices). Also remember that “Toy Story 2” opened well ahead of expectations back in 1999 with $57M, a huge number for that era.
“TS3” also boasts ecstatic reviews (100 percent, the year’s best score, at Rotten Tomatoes and 3.5 stars from me) and a relative lack of competition. With “Shrek Forever After” played out (while losing most of its lucrative 3-D sceens) and “Marmaduke” a bust, the only family-oriented film with any potential legs is Sony’s “Karate Kid,” which is predicted to distantly trail “TS3” in second place with a number in the high ’20s or low ’30s.
The weekend’s only other opener is Warners’ unfortunate “Jonah Hex,” a post-Civil War comic book adaptation starring former Oscar nominees Josh Brolin and John Malkovich, plus Megan Fox as a prostitute. My respected contrarian colleague Kyle Smith lauds this genuine curiosity (which will get in extra shows by virtue of its ultra-short 82-minute runtime) with 3 stars, but the current score at RT is a very rotten 11.
Prognosticators think the appropriately named “Hex” will open somewhere between $10M and $15M, possibly giving “The A-Team” a contest for fourth place, but in either case a poor enough showing to guarantee that “Jonah” joins “Robin Hood,” “Prince of Persia” and “The A-Team” as the season’s fourth failed franchise, which may be some sort of a record at this point.