At this pre-dog days juncture in the baseball season, a team’s record can be deceiving, as can the records of its starting pitchers.
In an effort to find undervalued pitching pickups for the summer, Roto Files looked at Pythagorean wins expectations — a formula that uses a team’s runs scored and runs allowed totals to compute how many wins a team with those numbers can be expected to have won, essentially measuring its luck in the standings — for under-performing clubs with an eye on some of their more unfortunate hurlers. If the team’s record reverts to the mean across 162 games, the extra wins it manages should trickle back to the rotation. Take a look (all records through Thursday):
Giants (39-31, Pythag: 42-28)
The most obvious candidate is Matt Cain, who despite having 12 of 14 quality starts and a 2.16 ERA, stands at 6-5. But good luck acquiring him. You will have a better shot with Jonathan Sanchez, still a strikeout machine but a more complete pitcher since he reduced his walks. He was an unlucky 5-5 with a 2.90 ERA.
Indians (26-44, Pythag: 29-41)
Fausto Carmona quietly is having an excellent comeback season in the margins of another disappointing Tribe campaign, with a 3.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP but just six wins to show for it. If he joins a contender at the deadline, his value only will rise. Justin Masterson (2-6, 4.87 ERA) is a consistent strikeout tallier and has four strong starts in his past five.
Royals (30-43, Pythag: 33-40)
Reigning Cy Young winner Zack Greinke
(2-8, 3.94) may be this year’s touch-luck poster boy. Brian Bannister, who goes into the history books as the first pitcher to beat Stephen Strasburg, has been victimized by inflated home-run numbers and should rebound. Luke Hochevar is not nearly as bad as his hideous career second-half splits (2-16, 6.68 ERA) would indicate, meaning he’s due for a strong summer.
Marlins (35-36, Pythag: 38-33)
Ace Josh Johnson is pitching out of his mind, but if he falters, there are candidates to pick up the slack. Chris Volstad (4-6, 4.39) has been the staff’s second hardest to hit, has been saddled with a loss in three quality starts and has yet to notch a cheap win. Ricky Nolasco (6-6) traditionally has a strong summer kick.