Whatifsports.com’s NFL simulation engine bases its weekly predictions on the statistical inputs of thousands of NFL games.
Those inputs are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. The simulation engine generates detailed predictions including the home team’s chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score. Last season, Whatifsports.com finished the season with a success rate of 58.1% against the spread. It was 12-5 (70.6%) in its Game of the Week ATS.
Although the Patriots and Steelers both enter Week 10 with identical 6-2 records, the statistical makeup and path each team took to reach this crossroads is quite unique.
During Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension, the Steelers managed to score more than 20 points only once, but still tallied a 3-1 record. Since Roethlisberger’s return, the Steelers have scored more than 20 points in three of four games, leading to another 3-1 record. Against a Patriots defense ranked 29th in the NFL, this offensive jolt is sure to continue.
Tom Brady (No. 6 QB rating) has helped to alleviate some of the Patriots’ defensive woes by leading an offense ranked second in points per game (27.4). However, New England has allowed 20-plus points in six of eight games and will face the stingiest defense in the league. Pittsburgh is only allowing 15.4 points per game to the opposition.
The Whatifsports.com NFL simulation engine “played” this game 501 times and the Steelers covered the spread 75.2-percent of the time and won the majority of the sims by an average score of 28-14.
Last week: 5-7-1
Season record: 48-75-6
Game of the Week: 3-5-1
Last night: Ravens (L)