MARK it down: My Week 1 breakout player is a lock. No need to scour the Web or pore over stats and injury reports. I’m about to tell you, with complete an utter confidence, who this week’s under known star is.
It’s Cowboys WR Kevin Ogletree. A little late to the party, you say? Well, maybe you would have liked to have had that information before Wednesday’s opener. But look at it this way: Would you really have started Ogletree even if you thought he had a chance to break out? Really?
Let’s say, for example, I have a team with A.J. Green and Steve Smith as my starting receivers. I would not bench them to play a “sleeper” Week 1 pick. Sure, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have endured shaky training camps (for different reasons). Yes, Jason Witten was hobbled. Sure, Ogletree was the next best option. But if they replayed that game tomorrow, I still would start Austin or Bryant ahead of Ogletree.
The point being: It is too early to worry about matchups. That said, if you’re in a deep league, or you just like to roll the dice, then Nate Washington should be a good play this week.
It’s hard to believe the Patriots can go from one of the league’s worst pass defenses to a lock-down unit. Jake Locker might not be Joe Montana, but chances are he will complete a few passes. With Kenny Britt suspended for the first week, Washington will be the go-to guy. In the final four games last season, he caught three touchdowns and averaged nearly 90 yards.
It also means tight end Jared Cook moves up a spot on the food chain. Just remember, don’t sit your stars trying to catch lightning in a bottle. At least, not yet.
Big Weeks
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals, at Ravens
With backfield mate Bernard Scott out, the Law Firm should be able to pound out some decent yards, and hopefully a score, against an aging Ravens defense.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers, at Bucs
The Panthers backfield is a scary fantasy situation. Jonathan Stewart’s sore ankle should mean more carries for D-Will. Though he is not expected to get a wealth of goal-line chances, in lieu of Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert, he could break a long one.
Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots, at Titans
It would be no surprise for QB Tom Brady to show off his new toy in Week 1.
Randy Moss had seven TDs in his first four games with the Pats, and more than 100 yards in each. Don’t expect those kind of jump-out-of-your-seat numbers, but Lloyd’s Pats debut should be good enough to make you smile.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers, at Packers
He had his coming-out party in last year’s playoffs. Expect it to continue against a lackluster Packers defense whose linebackers are know for their pass-rushing, rather than coverage, skills.
Small Weaks
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles, at Browns
Cleveland had the second-ranked pass defense in the league last season. No joke. I checked. It’s a road game for Philadelphia to start the season on what has been a slow-starting team. Consider Matt Schaub, Alex Smith or Josh Freeman instead.
Stevie Johnson, WR, Bills, at Jets
Johnson will end up providing quality numbers for a seventh-round pick. But unless your name is Calvin Johnson, I probably am going to bench you against Darrelle Revis.
Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos, vs. Steelers
It would be surprising if Manning doesn’t at least match his worst season with the Colts, outside of his rookie year (he had 26 TDs, 23 INTs and more the 4,100 yards in 2001). But he could get off to a rough start against last year’s stingiest air defense.
Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins, at Texans
The Texans gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs last season. Throw in the facts Daniel Thomas is healthy and could steal carries, and that Miami easily could be playing from behind … well, let’s just say it doesn’t look promising for Reggie.
The Decision
Drew Loftis and Anthony Sulla-Heffinger tell you who you should start:
Toby Gerhart or Cedric Benson
Drew: Gerhart — The Vikings have suggested starter Adrian Peterson (knee) could get limited carries. Just eight months removed from ACL/MCL surgery, a decision to play him fully would only be made by a team of drunken clowns. Gerhart is a power back who should do well in the red zone, even against a respectable Jaguars run defense.
Anthony: Benson — I am almost always going to pick the proven commodity. Benson is coming off three straight 1,000 yard seasons with the Bengals, while Gerhart has 853 career yards. With the high-powered offense of the Packers, there will be plenty of chances for Benson to score, and the 49ers will not be able to stack the box against the run.