The Jets will be in Cincinnati going through their pregame preparation for their 4 p.m. Sunday game against the Bengals, but they will have an eye on the scoreboard or locker room televisions, curious about the result of the Patriots-Dolphins 1 p.m. game in New England.
Though it is not that late-season time of year for intense scoreboard watching with playoff berths and divisional races hanging in the balance, that game at Gillette Stadium is as relevant as a Week 8 game can be for the Jets.
After an overtime win against the Patriots last week inched the Jets to within a mere game of New England for first place in the AFC East, they can fly home from Cincinnati on Sunday night tied for the division lead.
A win by the 4-3 Jets over the 5-2 Bengals and a loss by the 5-2 Patriots to the 3-3 Dolphins would make for quite a yard sale in the AFC East, with the division title completely up for grabs and half a season still to play.
The question is this: Can the Dolphins, losers of three in a row after their surprising 3-0 start, beat a Patriots team that still is seething over its controversial loss to the Jets a week ago — largely because of a new penalty called for the first time in league history?
The odds and recent history do not point to a Miami win. The Patriots are a 6 ½-point favorite and have owned the Dolphins of late, having beaten them six consecutive times with series sweeps the last three years. A win this Sunday will give the Patriots their longest winning streak in the regular season against Miami.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 16-6 in his career against the Dolphins, including 10-1 at home.
A look at the NFL statistics and where Brady is ranked, though, is eye-opening and leaves the appearance that the Patriots, losers of two of their last three, are vulnerable. Brady has a pedestrian 75.3 rating, which is 26th in the league. He’s completed just 55.4 percent of his passes, which ranks 29th.
Despite the struggles of Brady and the Patriots, though, the Dolphins are not falling for it.
“I’m not buying any of that. This guy is one of the best ever, they are playing well, and we have to expect them to play extremely well at home,” Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said.
“You’re playing the division champs, the beasts of the last 10 years,” Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline told South Florida reporters this week. “I know that to say you treat a week any different than another week is probably wrong, but it’s just the feeling you get when you understand this has been a dominant team in the division for a while, so that should create more attention to detail.”
After their fast start, the Dolphins have looked shaky at quarterback and on offense in general. Second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill has seven turnovers (five interceptions, two lost fumbles) in the past three games. That is not a good combination considering the Patriots have created at least one turnover in 34 consecutive games — the longest streak in the NFL.
A big part of Tannehill forcing things is the fact the Dolphins have been unable to generate much of a running game, leaving Tannehill to try to do it on his own. The result has been 26 sacks in six games, with most of them coming in the second halves and fourth quarters with the Dolphins already having bailed on the running game.
Further stacking the odds against a Miami win Sunday is the Patriots’ dominance in the month of October, during which they are an NFL-best 36-9 since the 2003 season. The Patriots are 21-1 at home in October during that span.
A Patriots win would give them a 3-1 division record — a key potential tiebreak factor — with remaining December games in Miami and at home against the Bills. The Jets are 2-1 in the AFC East, with a split with the Patriots and a win over the Bills, with two remaining games against Miami and one in Buffalo.
What happens Sunday in Foxborough with the Jets watching intently from Cincinnati will not decide matters in the AFC East, which the Patriots have won 10 of the last 12 years, but it will have a significant impact on the division going forward.