Time for this annual, extremely subjective exercise of naming the top 10 general managers in baseball. What the heck? It’s fun.
Let me explain my parameters:
1. “General manager” is shorthand for “head of baseball operations.” Certain such folks, such as the Cubs’ Theo Epstein (president of baseball operations) and Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman (executive vice president of baseball operations) don’t carry the GM title — and in Epstein’s case, he has a GM beneath him in Jed Hoyer. But we want to make sure the buck stops with the person calling the shots on the baseball side.
2. How do we grade? Total body of work, with an emphasis on the recent — after all, none of us should rest on our laurels — and how the team looks moving forward. I also use my own most recent rankings as a reference point. I don’t think anyone should rise or fall dramatically based on one season. As a sub-point (is that even a thing?), I don’t place much extra credit on World Series titles as opposed to playoff appearances; there’s too much randomness occurring in the postseason. What happens in October, stays in October.
3. Going back to body of work, I’m establishing a new minimum of three years’ experience for consideration. Yup, I did this with Boston’s Ben Cherington in mind, because I couldn’t figure out what to make of his two seasons so far: awful in 2012, mind-blowingly good in 2013. The odd number of three will at least provide an edge one way or the other for all candidates in the positive/negative ratio.
OK, here we go. The GM rankings from last year are in parentheses:
1. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay (1): He and his lieutenants continue to do amazing work on a tiny budget, in a horribly constructed and located stadium that can’t draw any fans, in the toughest division in baseball. As my colleague Joel Sherman detailed, now that the Rays don’t draft high anymore, they must find other ways to replenish their farm system — which they must do, since they can’t be major players in the free-agent market.
Last year, Friedman leveraged two years of James Shields (and the only somewhat useful Wade Davis) into American League Rookie of the Year Wil Myers and three other kids. He also found his annual, buy-low first baseman in James Loney, and the Rays made the playoffs for the fourth time in six years.
2. Billy Beane, Oakland (4): Beane has a career track like no one else on this list — the studliest of rising stars, then a plummet into oblivion, and now he’s back again. Beane directed the A’s to their second straight AL West title on the strength of excellent offensive performances from all over the place — Brandon Moss made $1.6 million in 2013, for crying out loud — and the freakish Bartolo Colon carrying an otherwise young and inconsistent starting rotation. “Moneyball” the book is 10 years old already; there should be a sequel based on how Beane climbed back to the summit after five straight seasons (2007-11) of finishing .500 or worse.
3. Jon Daniels, Texas (2): You can look at the surface and think the Rangers are going backwards, from World Series losers in 2010 and 2011 to wild-card losers in 2012 to falling to Tampa Bay in a 163rd game in 2013. Eh. Thanks to Daniels’ guidance, Texas is still extremely well-positioned for the future and possesses the financial flexibility this winter to add some big bats (I’ve already bet on Nelson Cruz returning and Brian McCann coming aboard).
He dropped one spot because, look, Beane’s A’s have topped Daniels’ Rangers two years in a row. But you won’t find anyone in the industry who thinks Texas won’t continue to be a powerhouse.
4. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit (5): He has the longest tenure of anyone in this list — whenever I use the word “tenure,” I think of story No. 4 on this list — and he is on the best roll of his career, having guided the Tigers to three straight AL Central titles. Dombrowski’s greatest strength is his aggressiveness, as he is never shy about trading prospects. He showed off that skill once again in July when he dealt outfield product Avisail Garcia to the White Sox in the three-way trade that landed him shortstop Jose Iglesias from Boston.
5. John Mozeliak, St. Louis (6): I thought seriously about putting him even higher on this list, but that I didn’t speaks to a few of my beliefs: 1. Service time counts for a lot, and Mozeliak, with six years, has the least experience on this list; 2. I didn’t think any of the top four did anything wrong to merit dropping below him; 3. It’s harder to succeed in the AL than in the National League.
OK, now that the explanation is out of the way, Mozeliak is, needless to say, developing into an outstanding GM. He gets credit for overseeing arguably the most productive farm system in baseball — how many teams are kicking themselves for not drafting Michael Wacha before St. Louis popped him at No. 19 last year? — and the confidence in that system has allowed him to make decisions like letting Kyle Lohse depart via free agency last winter, even as it looked like St. Louis really could have used him. The Cardinals made their second World Series in three years as they used a compensation draft pick from Lohse’s signing with Milwaukee.
6. Brian Cashman, Yankees (3): Yes, Cashman’s inclusion always generates controversy among angry Yankees fans, and yes, 2013 was the team’s worst year, statistically, of any of his 16 on the job. He takes a hit for such acquisitions as Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay that didn’t pay off anywhere as well as past bargain buys.
The primary reason his ranking drops three spots, though, is his team’s poor position for the future. That isn’t his fault entirely; he had nothing to do with the 10-year, $275-million albatross that is Alex Rodriguez’s contract or re-signing Ichiro Suzuki last year — those calls came from ownership. The farm system’s awful 2013 campaign falls more on him, though, and a primary problem is they lack cheap internal solutions to cure what ails them elsewhere on their roster.
Nevertheless, he stays on the list because of his resume. Fourteen postseason appearances in 16 years, even with a payroll advantage, is nothing at which one should sneeze.
7. Theo Epstein, Cubs (9): Yeah, he rose up two spots even as the Cubs went 66-96 and fired manager Dale Sveum. Why? Because the Cubs made a number of rebuilding trades — Matt Garza to Texas, Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees and Scott Feldman to Baltimore — that set them up for the long game, as Carrie calls it in the “Homeland” pilot. The Cubs seem poised to leap to contention — if not in 2014, then the next year — and be perennial contenders when they do so. Add in Epstein’s success running the Red Sox, and here he is.
8. Brian Sabean, San Francisco (7): Besides putting Cashman in at all, the other primary item of complaint I noticed on the Twitterverse last year was not placing Sabean higher. At the time, Sabean was coming off his second World Series title in three years.
I think Sabean is very good. I think everyone on this list is very good or better. I don’t put him higher because the Giants have qualified for the playoffs just twice in the last 10 years; Sabean also got them to October four times from 1997 through 2003. It just so happens that both of those recent playoff appearances produced championships. It also appears the Giants’ pitching development machine has hit a snag, though I’m not about to put it past Sabean and his staff to fix that sooner than later.
9. Walt Jocketty, Cincinnati (10): Here’s a question: How do we factor in playoff expansion when we conduct these evaluations? After all, the 2008 Mets would have qualified for the second NL wild card under the current setup, instead of being viewed as negatively as they are now.
I say, tough luck. You play by the rules that are in place. So Jocketty’s Reds are a 2013 playoff team, albeit one that went down quietly without getting revenue from even one postseason home game — and then firing manager Dusty Baker afterwards.
Jocketty doesn’t have any magical skill. He just has his team in the middle of it more often than not. And he’s been doing so for quite a while now, first in St. Louis and now in Cincinnati.
10. Frank Wren, Atlanta (Not Ranked): He’s a first-timer here — he just finished his sixth season running the Braves, after succeeding future Hall of Famer John Schuerholz, and he also ran the Orioles in 1999 — and he made it because his Braves have become consistent contenders on relatively modest budgets. The Braves have an excellent farm system and also have hit on low-risk pickups such as relievers David Carpenter and Anthony Varvaro, both waivers claims.
So whose place did Wren take? Arizona’s Kevin Towers (No. 8 last year), whose trade of Justin Upton to Atlanta was questionable upon its execution and didn’t work out for the Diamondbacks. He lurks outside the Top 10, as does Baltimore’s Dan Duquette, who played a considerable role in building the 2004 Red Sox (he was let go in 2002, and Epstein replaced interim GM Mike Port later that year) and is now doing very good work in Baltimore.