Patriots (+5 ½) over Broncos, over 56
These Broncos are a better version of the Don Coryell-Dan Fouts Chargers, featuring a top-drawer quarterback boasting multiple field-stretching weapons … but burdened with a defense capable of frittering away advantages Manning & Co. rack up. The latter especially is true in the absence of defensive end Von Miller, and the recent injury to top corner Chris Harris makes an iffy secondary situation even more tenuous.
Recall the fates of flashy offenses that didn’t have the quality defensive support necessary to cop the Lombardi. The Ravens, Cowboys, Colts, Chiefs (second meeting), Chargers (second meeting), and New England (at Foxborough) all racked up 27 points or more against the Broncos. Denver may have peaked prematurely — like the undefeated Patriots of 2007, who got stifled in the Giants’ quick-revenge stunner in Super Bowl XLII.
Acknowledge this is not vintage Patriots. In fact, it’s arguable this is as modest a playoff side as Belichick-Brady have guided, given their crushing injury burdens. But Belichick’s made lemonade … and a dedicated rushing game can do sustained business against Denver’s front. The staff has placed running back LeGarrette Blount in a position to succeed, and he has made the difference in the Patriots’ recent ground effort.
Rule alterations (minimizing physical harassment of receivers) which directly benefitted the Patriots likely will assist Manning and his passcatchers. It could be viewed as poetic justice that longtime Patriots stalwart Wes Welker was compelled to go to Denver.
Temperatures in the 50s are projected; Peyton smiles. But the Broncos frittered away that turnover-keyed 24-0 halftime lead at Foxborough two months ago, and no double-digit lead is safe.
Respect Broncos coach John Fox. He has made significant positive contributions in Denver, but he’s most effective in an underdog role. Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is 0-7 straight-up when opposing Brady. Especially with the extra day off, Belichick as an underdog is as dangerous as a wounded, rabid varmit.
Manning has lost five home playoff games by a total of 14 points. If this winds up being the 15th and final round of Manning vs. Brady, it should be something to see.
Broncos 31, Patriots 30
49ers (+3 ½) over Seahawks, under 39 ½
Like most NFL matchups bearing overwhelming defensive overtones — especially those contested between division rivals — there are fewer potential outlier deviations to deal with.
The Niners have had their troubles in CenturyLink, but coach Jim Harbaugh’s troops are markedly healthier than they were a year ago. Virtually all key defensive stalwarts for Frisco are primed and ready, and QB Colin Kaepernick will have receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis to target.
The 49ers’ offensive productivity is a key issue. San Fran has scored fewer than 20 points against Seattle in each of their last five meetings, and have racked up just five touchdowns and 17 field goals in their most-recent half-dozen clashes. Thank heaven for placekicker Phil Dawson and all that, but this kind of taffy pull places an enormous burden on a defense.
Much of this is attributable to Harbaugh’s Bo Schembechler-bequeathed conservatism when up against sides of comparable talent, but you can’t say it’s a horrible idea when your quarterback can be prone to low-percentage passes, and the Seattle secondary is a (lax-officiating-facilitated) terror, especially when defending the red zone.
Sometimes, a team’s pet advantage can disappear, instantaneously. Seattle leads the league with 20 more takeaways than giveaways. Should the Frisco defense wrest the advantage in this area — and the way their defense hits with malicious intent, it’s very possible — it could make all the difference.
This is San Francisco’s fourth consecutive road game, off three wins. No NFL side’s pulled off this version of the Golden Sombrero since before the merger. Such tensions intertwined with extensive streaks can end badly. But Joe Montana’s Niners were masters of operating out of suitcases, as well.
CenturyLink is the ultimate current test of that knack, but regular readers know how we harp on pacing and relative team freshness, Harbaugh’s been canny in handling that issue, and it’s paid off. This visitor doesn’t get hit upside the head in the first 10 minutes, and this goes to the wire. Suspect the ’Hawks will miss concussed speedster Percy Harvin far more than they would care to admit.
49ers 19, Seahawks 17
Last week: 3-0-1 sides; 2-2-0Â over/unders.
Postseason: 4-3-1 sides; 3-5-0Â over/unders.