As an entertaining NBA Playoffs roll on – though the second round has quickly fell off the breathtaking pace of the fantastic first round – the league’s annual coaching carousel has begun.
After the Warriors chose to let Mark Jackson go, there are now six head coaching jobs – along with the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons, Jazz and Timberwolves – available this offseason. With the Pistons looking for a coach for the second straight summer, that means 18 of the 30 NBA coaching jobs have come available in the last 12 months, and only four coaches – San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich, Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks, Dallas’ Rick Carlisle and Miami’s Erik Spoelstra – have been in their job five years or more.
With the seemingly continuous coaching turnover as backdrop, here’s a look at the six jobs currently available, ranked in order of desirability.
6. Detroit Pistons
Pros: One young, blue-chip player (Andre Drummond), salary cap flexibility
Cons: Unstable front office/ownership, awkward roster construction
The lowdown: Of the six jobs currently open, the Detroit opening is easily the worst. Yes, the Pistons have Drummond, who has a chance to become the next Dwight Howard thanks to his unique size/speed combination. From a courtside seat, there are few things more awe-inspiring/terrifying than watching Drummond catch an alley-oop as he’s flying towards the rim. He’s like a heat-seeking missile that detonates when he reaches the basket.
But even with Drummond, a top-10 pick in this year’s loaded draft and a little over $20 million in expected cap room, there is little to be optimistic about in Detroit. The Pistons have been all over the place under the ownership of Tom Gores, who is coming up on his third anniversary of buying the team back and has a franchise in the midst of a third coaching search as well as a general manager search after longtime GM Joe Dumars stepped down last month.
Once Detroit figures out what it wants to do with its GM and coach spots, it will have to figure out what to do with Greg Monroe, the other young, talented Pistons big man and a restricted free agent this summer. This season proved the triumvirate of Drummond, Monroe and Josh Smith is an awkward one – and that the Pistons will be better off moving Monroe or Smith this summer. Given that Smith is signed for three more years and owed more than $40 million, it’s going to be very hard to move him.
Ideal candidate: None. There are too many variables here, beginning with the general manager, to single out any single ideal candidate.
Intriguing candidate: Mark Jackson. After crafting a stout defense in Golden State, you would think Jackson would be able to do so in Detroit with an anchor like Drummond to build around. Also, for an organization lacking an identity after so many coaching changes and the departure of Dumars, Jackson would certainly provide one.
5. Timberwolves
Pros: One of the league’s better starting fives, featuring a top-10 player in Kevin Love; lottery pick in this year’s draft
Cons: Locked-in roster with little flexibility; Love’s uncertain future; smaller market.
The lowdown: In the 25-year history of the Minnesota Timberwolves, the franchise has exactly zero seasons with a .500 record or better without Kevin Garnett. That’s 13 of the team’s 25 seasons in the NBA, and this season’s 40-42 record was the franchise’s best win-loss record in a season without Garnett.
That’s the backdrop against which the Wolves enter this offseason, easily the most pivotal in the franchise’s history since the summer of 2007, when Garnett was sent from Minnesota to Boston. Like that summer, they have an All-NBA power forward who is reaching a point in his career where he has a choice to make about his future.
The Wolves seem insistent on trying to do what Portland did with LaMarcus Aldridge over the past year – go from a team that hasn’t won much to giving Aldridge enough support, namely a much better bench, to lift Portland to new heights. Now, a year after Aldridge was talking about leaving town when his contract runs out next summer, it’s hard to see him going anywhere.
If the Wolves can stay healthy, which they didn’t this season, and find a contributor with the No. 13 pick in the draft, they could become next season’s year’s Portland. If not, they face the prospect of Love leaving next summer and having to start all over again.
Ideal candidate: Fred Hoiberg. An up-and-coming coach who has done an outstanding job at Iowa State, plus he’s a former NBA player who has relationships with Love and many other important members of the Wolves organization from his time there as a player and executive.
Intriguing candidate: Mike D’Antoni. With the offensive firepower the Timberwolves have on their roster, D’Antoni could do well in Minnesota, but has some baggage following a pair of stops with abrupt endings with the Knicks and Lakers.
4. New York Knicks
Pros: Presence of Phil Jackson in the front office; allure of New York; ownership clearly willing to pay top dollar and spare no expense to win; potential for lots of cap space in years to come; lower bar for success in weaker Eastern Conference.
Cons: Aging, poorly constructed roster with little flexibility this summer, plus lack of draft picks moving forward; questions about how long Jackson will be in the job/how he’ll do in it; historically meddlesome ownership.
The lowdown: You can make a good argument there are three truly iconic head coaching jobs in the NBA: the Lakers, Knicks and Celtics. That two of the three are open this summer is a rarity. But just because the Knicks job is iconic doesn’t mean it’s ideal. At the moment, it clearly isn’t.
There are plenty of positives to the job, in theory. Getting to work with someone like Phil Jackson is a rare opportunity, one many would jump at. For all the way you could criticize Jim Dolan as an owner, only Mikhail Prokhorov can rival the financial lengths Dolan has proved willing to go to put a winner on the court.
But the issue with the Knicks is with their roster. The Knicks are in a bad enough cap situation that even if Carmelo Anthony leaves as a free agent this summer, they still will be over the salary cap. And, because of the amount of money Anthony likely will command to re-sign, there is a compelling argument the Knicks could be better off in the long term if they let him walk or swap him in a sign-and-trade than to re-sign him for five years and $130 million.
Because of prior trades, the Knicks just have one first-round pick in the next three drafts, meaning they are likely to have one shot — in the summer of 2015 — to both utilize their first-round pick and improve the team in free agency. It could be a home run, if they land a couple of star players, or it could become a disaster, if they start throwing money at players just to fill out the roster and come up empty handed.
Then there’s also the questions of how long Jackson will stay in the job and how long Dolan will stay out of the way. If Jackson is committed over the long term, this job probably is ranked too low. But there are just too many variables at work right now to know if that’s the case.
Ideal candidate: Steve Kerr. A smart, highly respected basketball mind, Kerr played for both Jackson and Gregg Popovich and has spent time as both a TV analyst and as Phoenix’s general manager. Is being sought after for several jobs, but his longtime relationship with Jackson has made him the favorite.
Intriguing candidate: Tyronn Lue. Spent time playing in the triangle for Jackson in Los Angeles, and has burnished his credentials as an assistant while working for Doc Rivers in Boston and Los Angeles. Might not be the typical big name the Knicks would go for, but he would know Jackson’s philosophies on the game.
3. Utah Jazz
Pros: Massive salary cap flexibility; several young, blue-chip talents on the roster; top-five pick in this year’s draft, plus extra picks this year and in future years; stable ownership.
Cons: Small market that isn’t for everyone; question of how much ownership will spend; uphill battle to progress in ultra-competitive West.
The lowdown: The Jazz job is in many ways the opposite of the Knicks job. Utah has barely any money on its books, with over $30 million available heading into this summer before Gordon Hayward’s restricted free agency is resolved. Along with Hayward, the Jazz have a pair of good, young big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, a good young point guard in rookie Trey Burke and a pair of first-round picks in this year’s talent-rich draft – including a top-five pick that has a decent chance to move up to the top overall selection.
Combined with an incredibly stable ownership/front office structure, that gives this job the kind of long-term security few in the NBA offer these days. The Jazz gave Ty Corbin three-plus years on the job, including letting him coach out the final year of his contract this season when many teams would likely have parted ways with him after the 2012-13 season.
The problem is the Jazz are in the Western Conference, where it’s incredibly hard to move up the ladder. But between the amount of young talent on the roster and the long track record of patience by ownership, this is a job that promise some longevity.
Ideal candidate: None. The Jazz have said they are going to interview “20-plus” candidates for this opening, so it’s hard to say what direction general manager Dennis Lindsey is going.
Intriguing candidate: Ettore Messina. Long considered one of the world’s best coaches, Messina’s name has come up in connection with a variety of NBA jobs, and he would become the first foreign coach in NBA history. A four-time Euroleague champion, Messina is the definition of intriguing.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Pros: Biggest brand in NBA; league’s most desirable location; lots of cap space both this summer and in years to come; tops in revenue; top-10 draft pick this year.
Cons: Unproven ownership situation; presence of a declining Kobe Bryant; lack of depth on roster.
The lowdown: The Lakers are to the NBA what the Cowboys are to the NFL or the Yankees are to MLB. Dominant over the last 50-plus years, the Lakers have become the team that most kids grow up dreaming to play for.
That’s no small thing, and it’s part of the way the Lakers are banking on rebuilding the franchise’s prestige over the next couple years. The brand cratered this season when Bryant missed virtually the entire season dealing with various injuries and the Lakers plummeted into the lottery.
The upside of the Lakers being in the lottery is they have a chance to draft a star to begin the next phase of Lakers success. Though Bryant was given a far-above-market-value two-year extension this season before returning from his torn Achilles tendon, the Lakers still have around $30 million in cap room this summer and are expected to have close to $40 million in the summer of 2015, when Love is set to be a free agent. Many people expect he’ll want to play for the Lakers.
Trying to rebuild through free agency is always risky, but when you are the Lakers, you have reason to be confident. The next two years will tell a lot about where the franchise will go under Jim Buss. The son of the late Dr. Jerry Buss has had a bumpy tenure as the team’s top basketball executive (his sister Jeanie runs the business side of the team).
If these next couple of years work out, Jim Buss will look like a genius. If they don’t? Well, let’s just say the millions of Lakers fans won’t be thrilled – especially if Jackson gets things turned around in New York.
Ideal candidate: Tom Thibodeau. It doesn’t seem as if the Bulls will let the Lakers speak to their coach, but if they did, it would foolish of the Lakers not to hire him. He’s done a heck of job in Chicago the past four seasons.
Intriguing candidate: Derek Fisher. In the same vein of Jason Kidd going back to the Nets last summer, Fisher should be able to command the respect of his former teammate Bryant, and is highly respected around the league.
1. Golden State
Pros: Talent-laden, win-now roster led by Stephen Curry, a legitimate top-10 talent; deep-pocketed ownership that’s willing to spend; big market that is desirable to live in and attract free agents; new arena on the horizon.
Cons: Very high expectations from ownership, which expects to win big in brutal Western Conference; very little flexibility, in draft picks or cap space; several key players are aging or injury-prone.
The lowdown: Once the Warriors made the expected move to let Jackson go, this became the far and away best job on the market. The Warriors play in one of the most exciting home environments in the league at Oracle Arena in Oakland, where the fans are thrilled to have the best team they’ve had in 20 years. Between Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David Lee and Andrew Bogut, Golden State has one of the league’s top starting fives, plus a very good young player in Draymond Green and potentially a second in Harrison Barnes, who had a rough second season.
That doesn’t mean the job doesn’t have pitfalls. Warriors ownership, led by Joe Lacob, is very involved in the team’s affairs, and the atmosphere around the team this season was a strange mix of success on the court and turmoil behind the scenes.
Lacob has made it clear he expects this team to contend for a title, and that will be the baseline for the new coach. With the amount of talent the Warriors have, it’s a risk most coaches would be happy to take.
There has to be some concern that losing Jackson from a locker room that clearly seemed to support him could have long-term repercussions, but if the new coach comes in and wins, then that should take care of itself.
It will be fascinating to see how this job search plays out and how Jackson’s successor fares. Jackson’s relative results with this roster became one of the most hotly debated topics in coaching circles over the past few months.
Ideal candidate: Stan Van Gundy. The Warriors are reportedly interested in Van Gundy, and he reportedly is interested in the job. Since he left Orlando a couple years ago, there have been questions about when and where he would jump back in and the best coach on the market would be a perfect fit in the Bay Area.
Intriguing candidate: D’Antoni. As with the Timberwolves, letting D’Antoni work with Curry would be pretty fun to watch. This would be the closest recreation to the wonderful teams he had in Phoenix, and the Warriors under him could put up boatloads of points.