Forget about California Chrome and the Triple Crown: For many New Yorkers, the handicapping race this week is all about the Tonys. Ahead of Sunday’s telecast, we balance out who should win versus who actually will.
Best Musical
Lisa O’Hare as Sibella Hallward and Bryce Pinkham as Monty Navarro in “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder.” (left) and Dule Hill with Vanessa Williams in “After Midnight.”Joan Marcus; WireImage
Nominees: “After Midnight,” “Aladdin,” “Beautiful — The Carole King Musical,” “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”
Will win: “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”
Should win: “After Midnight”
Three out of the four nominees have wholly or partially recycled scores, which may give a slight edge to the operetta pastiche “Gentlemen’s Guide” — critically acclaimed and the only entirely new musical. But boy, is it pleased with itself! “Beautiful” has been surging lately, but in terms of pure pleasure, these shows have nothing on the elegant, spirited, meticulously crafted jazz revue “After Midnight.”
Best Play
Nominees: “Act One,” “All the Way,” “Casa Valentina,” “Mothers and Sons,” “Outside Mullingar”
Will win: “All the Way”
Should win: “All the Way”
What an abundance of — well, what’s the opposite of riches? “All the Way” should and will win. Not because it’s great — it’s basically a historical diorama about LBJ — but because the competition is even worse. The best entry in this middling bunch is the near-perfect first act of “Casa Valentina.” Too bad there’s no voting for part of a show.
Best Revival of a Play
Nominees: “The Cripple of Inishmaan,” “The Glass Menagerie,” “A Raisin in the Sun,” “Twelfth Night”
Will win: “The Glass Menagerie”
Should win: “A Raisin in the Sun”
Fun fact: This is the first nom ever for Tennessee Williams’ “The Glass Menagerie,” and this critical hit could also bring home the award. It’s going to come down between it and the crowd-pleasing “Twelfth Night.” Still, while the latest revival of “Raisin” has less arty cred than the competition, it’s also the rare production that perfectly melds brain, brawn and heart.
Best Lead Actor in a Play
Nominees: Samuel Barnett (“Twelfth Night”), Bryan Cranston (“All the Way”), Chris O’Dowd (“Of Mice and Men”), Mark Rylance (“Richard III”), Tony Shalhoub (“Act One”)
Will win: Bryan Cranston
Should win: Samuel Barnett
“Breaking Bad” star Bryan Cranston makes a convincing transition from TV to stage. But he’s also been gifted the kind of awards-baiting part that’s catnip for actors. Samuel Barnett, on the other hand, is all nuance as Shakespeare’s dashing, quick-tongued Viola.
Best Lead Actress in a Play
Nominees: Tyne Daly (“Mothers and Sons”), LaTanya Richardson Jackson (“A Raisin in the Sun”), Cherry Jones (“The Glass Menagerie”), Audra McDonald (“Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill”), Estelle Parsons (“The Velocity of Autumn”)
Will win: Audra McDonald
Should win: LaTanya Richardson Jackson
When the Billie Holiday tribute “Lady Day” was classified as a play rather than a musical, it moved Audra McDonald from a highly competitive category to a weak one, and opened up the opportunity for her sixth Tony. Let’s hear it instead for LaTanya Richardson Jackson, who can turn from warm den mother to household tyrant in a second, and isn’t afraid to not be sympathetic.
Best Lead Actor in a Musical
Nominees: Neil Patrick Harris (“Hedwig and the Angry Inch”), Ramin Karimloo (“Les Misérables”), Andy Karl (“Rocky”), Jefferson Mays (“A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”), Bryce Pinkham (“A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder”)
Will win: Neil Patrick Harris
Should win: Andy Karl
Only Hugh Jackman is more popular than Neil Patrick Harris in the Broadway community, so this year NPH is going to win an award instead of presenting it. And yet there are those of us — OK, maybe just me — who thought NPH’s performance felt forced, and preferred Andy Karl’s affecting, deceptively straightforward turn as the good-hearted lug in “Rocky.”
Best Lead Actress in a Musical
Nominees: Mary Bridget Davies (“A Night with Janis Joplin”), Sutton Foster (“Violet”), Idina Menzel (“If/Then”), Jessie Mueller (“Beautiful — The Carole King Musical”), Kelli O’Hara (“The Bridges of Madison County”)
Will win: Jessie Mueller
Should win: Sutton Foster
If Neil Patrick Harris is Broadway’s male darling, Jessie Mueller is the female one — her good-will capital is sky-high. She brings terrific warmth and sensitivity to her role as Carole King in “Beautiful,” and truly lifts that so-so bio-jukebox. In a less competitive year, Sutton Foster’s testing of her own limits — and her image — in “Violet” would have brought her the gold.