The offseason is an annual stress test for 30 teams. Nevertheless, even with a month left in the regular season, we can begin to see which organizations will face extreme challenges this winter.
For example, beyond the normal (trying to figure out how to win at altitude), the Rockies finish this year with their two most important and expensive pieces, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, having lost value to the team and the industry by having yet another season curtailed by injuries.
The Blue Jays invested heavily to try to win after the 2012 campaign and backed off dramatically last offseason. Neither path has produced Toronto’s first playoff team since 1993. So what do the Jays do now with less farm system after their splurge of two years ago, but a higher payroll?
After so many wait-till-next-year pleas to their fans, can the Mets really offer another nickel-and-dime offseason that, in the end, leaves their lineup dubious and their payroll more San Diego than San Francisco?
Yet, with all of that, the club that faces the most daunting hurdles is the Reds because: 1) Four-fifths of their rotation will enter their walk year to free agency in 2015. 2) They have huge investments in a right side of the infield, with Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, that has significant indicators of diminishing returns. 3) They play in arguably the majors’ toughest division, with the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates all still vying for the playoffs, and the scariest element for every team in the NL Central the behemoth growing at Wrigley.
It is possible the Reds’ window to capitalize on a prime-age rotation, Aroldis Chapman anchoring the bullpen and a lineup built around Jay Bruce, Phillips and Votto has come and gone. The Reds made the playoffs in three of the past four years with two division titles. And, at this year’s All-Star break, they were 51-44, 1 1/2 out of first in the NL Central and one game out of a wild card.
Since then, heading into Saturday, only Colorado had a worse record in the NL than Cincinnati (14-26), which might have fallen not only out of contention, but into its next phase as an organization.
“We still have a small window,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said by phone. “This year is disappointing because of the injuries. From the very beginning, we had 11 DL guys and eight were key. … I feel we still have a small window if the guys come back healthy.”
That could be true. But I think Cincinnati has to be proactive and shop Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, and maybe Bruce, too. Even at full health, the Reds would not be the favorites to win the NL Central next year — maybe not even be picked for second or third. And going for it without trying to improve their payroll situation and farm system would very well cast them into irrelevancy for a while.
Because Votto, Phillips and Homer Bailey have big contracts that can’t be moved or only can be moved by eating large sums and/or taking back equally bad pacts. Having those contracts means the Reds do not seem positioned to sign their ace, Cueto, and maybe not even Latos, at a time when that duo plus Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon are all free agents after the 2015 campaign. And to make bad worse, Cincinnati is viewed as having a bottom-tier farm system at a time when the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs have among the best.
Jocketty, in fact, was on a minor league tour when we spoke, trying to gauge what could be coming from the system. Perhaps top prospect, righty Robert Stephenson, could come soon (he is at Double-A). The Reds signed Cuban Rasiel Iglesias as a starter, though much of the industry thinks he is a reliever. Cincinnati always can revisit making Chapman a starter, but he has been resistant to that in the past — and, by the way, he is arbitration eligible this offseason and a free agent after 2016.
“We are certainly aware of the strength of our division and the emerging strength of the Cubs,” Jocketty said. “We have obviously kicked [what to do moving forward] around some, but once the season is over we will sit down and really focus on it. I don’t know that we could sign everybody. That would be tough to do. We will do the best we can to retain the pitching we have and make the right choices.”
But even trying to trade Cueto and Latos is problematic. Acquiring teams would get them only for a year, which lowers value. Cueto is a wonderful pitcher, but injury prone. Latos had an elbow cleanup in the offseason, tore a meniscus in spring, then incurred another elbow injury that cost him the first 2 1/2 months of this season.
Then there is the Bailey problem. The righty had talent, but not consistently strong results, yet before the season Cincinnati gave him a six-year, $105 million deal. He responded with a poor season that is now likely over because of an elbow injury. His contract was used as a baseline at times for both Jeff Samardzija with the Cubs and Jon Lester with the Red Sox — both of those players were traded in July to Oakland. Latos probably will shoot for a similar long-term deal, while Cueto will aim much higher.
The A’s, however, have not thrived since those deals, and neither had Detroit after obtaining David Price. Will this move clubs to become more hesitant about giving up big packages for even high-end starters in an era when pitching is 1) so good and 2) so fragile? Still, the Reds need to see what Cueto and Latos can fetch.
The Red Sox, for example, plan to contend next year, need veteran starting pitching after trading Lester, John Lackey and Jake Peavy, prefer to avoid long-term entanglements and have a deep farm system. If Samardzija can fetch elite prospect Addison Russell from the Cubs, could Cueto bring Xander Bogaerts or touted lefty starter Henry Owens? If not, could the Reds get volume with, say, Cueto for Mookie Betts, Anthony Ranaudo and Brandon Workman?
The Yankees, Royals, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels and Dodgers are among those expected to be interested in starting pitching as well this offseason — which might help the Mets, for example, find a place to deal Bartolo Colon.
It also could make the Reds, with starters to move, the main seller of this coming offseason — if they proactively decide to become sellers.