Jacob deGrom probably is going to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. He has earned it with a terrific out-of-nowhere story in which he turned from shortstop to pitcher, from Tommy John surgery to fireballer and from marginal prospect to potentially a top-of-the-rotation figure.
But deGrom, to some degree, is winning by deFault.
It is all about location, location, location, and in 2014 — if you are having a good rookie year — the best place to be is in the National League.
Consider that deGrom is arguably not even the best 2014 rookie drafted by Omar Minaya when he was Mets general manager. Collin McHugh (selected in the 18th round in 2008) has given up the same number of hits (113) as deGrom (ninth round, 2010) despite pitching 14 1/3 more innings. McHugh also leads in ERA, 2.66 to 2.68.
Yet because he plays for the Astros, McHugh might not even appear on the majority of ballots. After all, voters can only pick first, second and third choices. White Sox slugger Jose Abreu likely will get all 30 first-place votes. Then each voter will have to make touch decisions on the next two slots.
Did Masahiro Tanaka (who has five fewer innings than deGrom) do enough to get on the ballot? Does one of the best setup seasons in history get Dellin Betances votes? The Angels’ Matt Shoemaker, the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi, the Royals’ Yordano Ventura and the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman all have been superb rotation pieces, and the Mariners’ James Paxton has been brilliant, albeit in a 10-start cameo.
That group will make it all but impossible for any position player aside from Abreu to get votes, though Minnesota’s Danny Santana, Tampa’s Kevin Kiermaier and Houston’s George Springer had nice seasons.
Meanwhile, in the NL, you have to be liberal in defining worthy candidates.
The main competition for deGrom is Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton, a speedster who for a while looked as if he would run away with the award. As he played, he seemed to get comfortable, raising his OPS from April to May and then again to .848 in June. But that fell to .677 in July, .617 in August and .451 so far in September. His game has petered out as he was caught in four of his past seven steal attempts and leads the majors with 23 caught stealings.
As for the rest of the field, deGrom’s Mets teammate Travis d’Arnaud and Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong did not rouse until after minor league demotions, Giants second baseman Joe Panik came up too late and Diamondbacks shortstop Chris Owings went down too early with injury. As for pitchers, there is deGrom and nobody close. Perhaps the second-most impressive NL rookie pitcher has been Phillies setup man Ken Giles (12.96 strikeouts per nine innings).
Touted prospects such as the Cardinals’ Oscar Taveras and the Pirates’ Gregory Polanco came up in-season and never really excelled.
Like taking advantage of an easy schedule, credit deGrom for capitalizing on a weak field by pitching very well. He can rightfully say he won the award. But it is hard to ignore the competition was deGraded.
The best pitcher on the planet is somehow underrated
He is so good that he is still going to win his third Cy Young in four years (he finished second the other season) and very possibly become the first NL pitcher since Cardinals righty Bob Gibson in his sainted year of 1968 to win the MVP.
In fact, the debate over whether a pitcher should win the MVP is going to dominate the conversation around Kershaw. The only history will involve ties to Gibson and to another Dodgers lefty great, Sandy Koufax, who won the MVP in 1963.
But while you want to savor a season in which Kershaw currently has a 1.70 ERA (which would be the lowest since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 in 1995), we should step back a bit and appreciate that we are watching one of the greatest pitchers ever at the peak of his powers. Though you can argue that peak has lasted quite a while now and does not look as if it is diminishing anytime soon.
In his six full seasons, 2009-2014, Kershaw has never had an ERA above 2.91. Only five times in history have pitchers qualified for the ERA title and gone seven straight years at 2.91 or lower. Three pre-date the live-ball era: Slim Sallee (1912-18), Walter Johnson (1913-19) and Hippo Vaughn (1914-20).
The only two such runs since World War I are Juan Marichal from 1963 to 1969 and Maddux from 1992 to 1998.
And all of those players were at least 25 in their first season doing it. Kershaw turned 26 in March, which means this period has covered ages 21-26. He is theoretically entering his prime, and 2013 and 2014 have been his best years.
So here is the scary thought for major league hitters: Kershaw is great, greater now than ever and just might be getting better.
Jose Altuve is a breakout hit
If a bunch of hits fall in the outfield and no one sees them, do they make a noise?
Well, it hasn’t been a complete sound of silence, but Jose Altuve keeps defying shifts and rising fastball velocities and every other trend that makes getting a hit as hard now as just about ever. Yet he can walk down the street in just about any American city — Houston probably, too — without much notice. This is life playing for an Astros franchise that has spent a few years losing on purpose to get high draft picks to build for a future date. And also a franchise that has gone several years in a dispute that has left 60 percent of the Houston area unable to see Astros games on TV.
What has been missed is the growth of a 5-foot-6, righty-hitting, Ichiro-in-his-prime-esque hit machine.
On Tuesday night, Altuve collected two hits to reach 211 for the season, which enabled him to tie and pass Craig Biggio’s team record. But Biggio is just one second baseman Altuve can pass in his 2014 assault. He had 11 more games to turn this season from sensational to even more historic.
Since the 1969 expansion, the only second basemen with more hits in a season than Altuve has in 2014 are Rod Carew (218 in 1974), Dave Cash (213 in 1975) and Dustin Pedroia (213 in 2008). If he passes Carew, Altuve would finish with the most hits by a second baseman since Charlie Gehringer’s 227 in 1936. The record is 250 by Rogers Hornsby in 1922.