BALTIMORE — Max Scherzer gambled perfectly. He rejected a six-year, $144 million extension offer in spring, betting on himself that he could successfully follow a Cy Young season.
He did that. The Tiger righty’s 2014 paled to his 2013, but by millimeters. He still delivered career-highs in innings (220 ¹/₃) and strikeouts (252). He remained a four-pitch genius.
Yet what if Scherzer gambled perfectly, but the rules changed? What if teams reach this groupthink: If no one can hit, why pay exorbitant long-term prices for a pitcher?
It used to be if you needed an elite starter, good luck. But three — Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija and David Price — were traded in July. Three more — Scherzer, Lester and James Shields — will be available in free agency. At least three more — Johnny Cueto, Andrew Cashner and Samardzija — could be available in trades.
Meanwhile, with free agency looming, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Jason Hammel, Ervin Santana and Edinson Volquez had sustained stretches of ace-hood because they got better, offense got worse or likely some combo.
In supply and demand, that is a lot of supply, which generally lowers prices.
Ultimately Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, likely will find at least that $144 million … probably more. Organizations do financial tough talk in October and capitulate to eye-popping prices in December, convincing themselves one more shiny trinket will bring a parade.
However, until the cycle flips back to better offense and/or advancements are made to reduce torn elbows, then a growing number of clubs are going to shy away from the mega-pitching deal. For example, with the long-term pacts for CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka having become bad or worrisome, I strongly believe the Yankees will ignore the Scherzers and Lesters and bring back McCarthy or someone like that and hope for a repeat in results. The Yankees, in many respects, are Example A that you can find starting pitching and survive, having lost 80 percent of their rotation for a long stretch, yet continuing to pitch well enough to win.
Yes, it is better to have Scherzer than McCarthy. But if the hitters are flailing at both, why take the seven-year, $175 million risk with Scherzer?
“Because the guy on the mound still makes a significant difference,” Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said. “Good clubs with good offenses will hit second-line pitching when they need to.”
This theory is being explored in the Tigers-Orioles Division Series. At great expense in money and prospects, Dombrowski assembled the majors’ glitziest rotation. Baltimore’s lacks star power. But dirty-secret alert — the Orioles’ starters posted a 3.61 ERA this year (12th in the majors). Detroit was at 3.89 (21st). How deflated is offense now? That 3.89 ERA would have been third in the majors 10 years ago and led the AL by a wide margin.
Baltimore’s Achilles was supposed to be its rotation. But these days rotations can be supported by defensive shifts and strong bullpens (see Yankees, New York). Baltimore had one of the majors’ best defenses and bullpens, the Tigers among the worst in both. So the Orioles could shop on the secondary market internationally (Wei-Yin Chen) or trade market (Bud Norris) and elevate their performances, and also enhance the steady growth of Chris Tillman.
Tillman lasted just five innings (two runs) in Game 1 as Detroit (notably Ian Kinsler) foul-balled his pitch count over 100. But the Oriole bullpen, led by the filthy Andrew Miller, held the Tigers to one run in four innings. Meanwhile, Scherzer left in the eighth with Detroit trailing by a run. But two errors and shabby penmanship by Joba Chamberlain, Joakim Soria and Phil Coke enabled Baltimore to blow the game open with eight runs to win 12-3.
So here’s a question: This offseason, would you rather invest six total years and $55 million-ish for Liriano and Miller or seven years at $175 million for just Scherzer?
Baltimore did spend big ($50 million over four years) for Ubaldo Jimenez last offseason, and he pitched his way into the pen. But spend big is relative. Detroit’s Anibal Sanchez (five years, $80 million) is also in the pen because of shoulder problems. Justin Verlander (seven years at $180 million) starts a pivotal Game 2 for Detroit. Even with a strong finish, he had his worst season and that contract is a huge concern.
David Price will start Game 3, though he was outpitched since July 31 by the pitcher traded for him, Drew Smyly — again, the defensive difference between Tampa and Detroit matters.
Historically, you always go for the starters. But we are at a new moment in history when offense has vanished and in risk vs. reward, more teams — even if it means spurning someone as terrific as Scherzer — are going to shun the risk.