In Thursday’s Post, colleague Brian Costello detailed the Jets’ 2002 visit to San Diego, when then-coach Herm Edwards told his team, “HELLO, you PLAY to WIN the GAME!” The 2-5 Jets crushed the 6-1 Chargers, 44-13, beginning a surge to a 9-7 record and first place in the AFC East.
The names and the records have changed in a dozen years, but Rex Ryan’s Jets are in largely the same situation, crossing the country with an underachieving 1-3 mark to take on the 3-1 Chargers, led by an on-fire Philip Rivers.
While the message in this space is always, “HELLO, you PLAY to COVER the SPREAD!” the feeling this week is the Jets will do at least that if they play to win the game.
The difference between the teams’ fortunes thus far is all turnovers. Jets are minus-6 and Chargers are plus-5. Consider even with Rivers’ statistical edge over Geno Smith, the Jets are averaging 14.5 more yards per game than San Diego. And giving up 34.2 yards per game fewer.
The Chargers have lost Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, and leading rusher Donald Brown is averaging just 2.0 yards per carry. That makes them one-dimensional, and gives Ryan’s front seven a chance to go hard after Rivers. Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford beat the Jets, but all took a physical pounding.
The pick: Jets +6¹/₂.
GIANTS (-4) over Falcons: The Giants’ offense is getting better and adding new elements each week. Falcons are already 0-2 on the road and have lost their last nine outdoor games. They lost two offensive linemen last week, so Matt Ryan won’t be very comfortable in the pocket. Can anyone stop Larry Donnell?
Bears (+2¹/₂) over PANTHERS: Can’t back Carolina until Cam Newton’s health allows him to run the read-option again. Ravens put a lot of hard hits on Newton last week, so it’s doubtful his ribs got much better. Top backs DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart could miss the game as well.
Browns (+2) over TITANS: Tennessee has lost three in a row by 16, 26 and 27. Quarterback Jake Locker returns after missing the loss last week at Indianapolis. Titans are due, but this is a Browns team that brings a good effort every week and will be lively after a bye.
EAGLES (-7) over Rams: Eagles offense is looking for redemption after putting up zero points and getting stopped at the goal line with a chance to win at San Francisco. Rams have yielded 34 points in two of their three games.
SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers: Figuring the Bucs’ out-of-nowhere win in Pittsburgh was an “only in the NFL” reaction to their 56-14 loss at Atlanta. Saints are 1-3 but all the losses have come on the road. They’ll be hot after getting embarrassed on national TV in Dallas.
COWBOYS (-6) over Texans: Cowboys are hot and getting hotter — scoring 26, 31 and 38 in wins the last three weeks. Houston’s offense is blah without a healthy Arian Foster (game-time decision again). Consider: J.J. Watt has two of their nine touchdowns.
Bills (+7) over LIONS: If Kyle Orton is the answer, you probably don’t want to know the question. But the Bills have a lot of offensive talent EJ Manuel wasn’t maximizing, so maybe this change to a veteran will lead to more from Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and Sammy Watkins. Like these points, particularly if Calvin Johnson’s still a decoy because of a bad ankle.
COLTS (-3¹/₂) over Ravens: Colts won last two by combined 85-34, but against the Jaguars and Titans. Not the greatest preparation for a physical Ravens team that comes in with a three-game winning streak. Tough call, but let’s stick with Andrew Luck and hope even this small spread isn’t too much.
Steelers (-6) over JAGUARS: Now it’s the Steelers coming off an unfathomable loss, mainly because of their own stupid penalties, so expect much better from them. Blake Bortles has had some impressive moments but he’s down two receivers (Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts III) for this one.
BRONCOS (-7¹/₂) over Cardinals: Broncos won their first two games at home by seven (over Colts and Chiefs) and were even more impressive in their loss in Seattle. Cardinals are 3-0 and have good players everywhere, but bring a backup QB (Drew Stanton) to a Mile High shootout with Peyton Manning.
Chiefs (+6) over 49ERS: It’s Alex Smith’s revenge game against Jim Harbaugh, and you can be sure Andy Reid will have a killer game plan for him. Niners got a TON of breaks against the Eagles.
PATRIOTS (+1) over Bengals: This line moved four points (from Patriots minus-3) after the incredible Monday night Beatdown at Arrowhead. If Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and this proud team can’t bounce back and win this game (as home underdogs!), you have to reconsider everything you think you know about NFL handicapping.
Monday night
Seahawks (-7) over REDSKINS: Pete Carroll is 10-1 in prime-time games as Seattle coach, and he’s got a professional, championship squad off a loss, a close call and a bye, to put up against a real mess.
Best bets: Seahawks, Saints, Steelers
Lock of the week: Seahawks (Locks 2-2)
Last week: 8-4-1 overall, 0-2-1 Best Bets.
Thursday night: Packers