Football expert Phil Steele is the owner and publisher of Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, regarded as the college football bible. Get in-depth coverage of college and pro football 24/7/365 at PhilSteele.com.
Utah (-3) over Colorado St. (Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday)
There are many times during the bowl season when a Power Five team faces a Group of Five opponent and is less than thrilled to be there. That is not the case with Utah, as it is making its first postseason trip in three years, while visiting Las Vegas and having excited fans. Utah is one of six programs with its football and basketball teams both in the AP Top 25 and fans have scooped up tickets as its basketball team plays later this evening, also in Las Vegas. The difference in competition is the most important factor here.
The Utes lead the FBS in sacks and according to my rankings have the No. 28 defense, the best the Rams have faced this year. Against their previous toughest defense, Utah State, they allowed eight sacks. On the flip side, Utah has faced only two defenses ranked lower than the Rams (my No. 78), and in that pair of games it averaged 58 points and 558 yards per game.
USC (-6¹/₂) Nebraska (Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27)
This matchup again gives us value based on the teams’ strength of schedules.
The NCAA ranks USC with the No. 31 offense and No. 68 defense, while Nebraska ranks higher in both with the No. 35 offense and No. 48 defense. When you compare the schedules the teams played, the Trojans faced my No. 6 toughest, with Nebraska facing my No. 61. My rankings have USC’s offense and defense at No. 19 and No. 14, respectively, compared with the Cornhuskers at No. 26 and No. 44. Lastly, when comparing the coaches, the Trojans are led by Steve Sarkisian, who covered his last two bowl games and three of his four, while the Cornhuskers fired their head coach and the interim, Barney Cotton, who had been the run game coordinator, already has committed to becoming UNLV’s offensive coordinator.
UNDER 45¹/₂ Texas vs. Arkansas (Texas Bowl, Dec. 29)
As you can tell, I put a great deal of stock into my offensive and defensive rankings. Only one bowl features a pair of my top-12 defenses (with Texas No. 8 and Arkansas No. 12). The Longhorns’ defense has held four teams to season lows this year, including each of their last two opponents, while Arkansas also has held four foes to a season low on offense. On offense, both teams have rush/pass ratio’s favoring the run game significantly, which is apparent in their scores. The Longhorns have faced three teams this year with a top-25 defense and in those games they have scored an average of six points per game, while Arkansas has scored fewer than 18 points per game in its last four contests against defenses that average a No. 15 rank.
Florida St (+9) over Oregon (Rose Bowl, Jan. 1)
Wow, can you say public misperception? The public is lining up to play against the Seminoles, as they have failed to cover 10 of their 13 games this season. I also would be playing against them if they were a favorite, but they are not! I will back a national championship team that has won 29 straight games and has not even been an underdog in 49 games! In fact, in the five seasons under head coach Jimbo Fisher, their largest underdog role was +7 points in Fisher¹s first ever road game while coaching the team. Now let us look at which QB you would want to have under center in a close game. Last year¹s Heisman winner, Jameis Winston, led Florida State from a 21-10 halftime deficit to the title over Auburn, and this year has trailed or led by less than a TD eight times at halftime, winning each. This year’s Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, has been tested six times when trailing or leading by seven or fewer at halftime since November 2013, and the Ducks have lost three of those games.
Final week of season: 0-2
Record: 16-14