Putting too much value on a player on draft day could bust your roster and kill your upcoming season before it even gets started. Roto Files is here to help you try and avoid taking these potential busts.
Here’s a look at eight players not to overvalue on draft day:
Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright (57.0 average draft position), a 20-game winner in 2014, had offseason surgery to trim cartilage from his pitching elbow (before straining his abdomen last month) after late-season struggles. This a major concern for a high workload pitcher who has averaged 209 innings per year since 2007, a strikeout pitcher who suffered his lowest strikeout percentage since 2008 after fanning just 179 (he struck out 219 in 2013). Wainwright remains an asset, just be careful depending on him as your No. 1.
I am extremely hesitant to go after Marlins 2B Dee Gordon (43.5 ADP), who has had one good year and whose value is dependent on speed. Rather than jump the gun and pray for a repeat of 2014, wait to grab reasonably priced players like Kolten Wong (115.9), Daniel Murphy (164.8), Neil Walker (134.7) or Jedd Gyorko (271.8).
Mariners OF Nelson Cruz (68.2 ADP), a 34-year-old power hitter coming off a career year in home-run-happy Camden Yards, moves to Safeco Field, where he has hit .234 with nine homers and 19 RBIs in 52 games. Just have a bad feeling about this.
Before hitting .315 with 13 homers, 52 RBIs with 18 stolen bases, Pirates 3B Josh Harrison (107.5 ADP) was a nondescript utility player who hit .250 with just seven homers and 46 RBIs in 532 career at-bats. Drafting him too early is like passing on someone with a solid resume for someone whose resume is written in crayon but they have a hot sister and good seats at MetLife Stadium.
Dealing with partially torn UCL is like playing Russian Roulette with “Dirty Harry.” Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka (128.9 ADP) is a better gamble than Rangers star Yu Darvish (45.8 ADP)
Tread carefully with Rockies 1B Justin Morneau (167.7 ADP). It was great to see his resurgence last season, but lightning may not strike twice.
A’s utility man Ben Zobrist (169.0 ADP) is attractive because of his durability and multi-position eligibility (2B/SS/OF), but a soon-to-be 34-year-old with declining numbers playing in a pitcher-friendly park doesn’t bode well for your dreams of fantasy glory.
With declining numbers and no catcher eligibility, Twins 1B Joe Mauer (241.25 ADP) is just a name you know, not a name you need.