Former Xavier, Providence and Virginia coach Pete Gillen, a CBS Sports Network college analyst and NYC basketball Hall of Famer, shares some of his March Madness thoughts and predictions with The Post. As told to Steve Serby.
My bracket looks like a piece of swiss cheese, there are so many holes in it. My boss said that if I don’t do better this week, I’ll be picking jai alai winners in Newport, R.I., for a bag of three-day-old doughnuts for the week. The pressure’s on, so I’m really focused.
East
LOUISVILLE over N.C. STATE: How N.C. State lost 13 games is the biggest mystery since the Nancy Drew novels. But give Rick Pitino four days to prepare and he’s tough to beat. His matchup zone slows down Anthony Barber and Trevor Lacey. Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier have big games, and freshman Quentin Snyder is solid again.
MICHIGAN STATE over OKLAHOMA: A very physical game, but Travis Trice (19 ppg) continues his hot NCAA Tournament shooting. The Sooners don’t have enough offense to help Buddy Hield.
ELITE 8
MICHIGAN STATE over LOUISVILLE: The Spartans hurt Louisville with their fast break and up-tempo attack. Tom Izzo’s vice-like defense bottles up the Cardinals, and Trice and Branden Dawson provide the senior leadership.
Midwest
KENTUCKY over WEST VIRGINIA: The Mountaineers lead the country in forcing 19 turnovers a game and getting 11 steals with their full-court press. The West Virginia players are so tough, they prepare for practice each day by taking charges off Greyhound buses and doing push-ups on picket fences. They have 10 guys who play 13 minutes a game or more, so they’re not gonna get tired. They’re not going to back down — they’re like piranhas, they keep coming at you, then you have to kill them.
I think they could get 15 turnovers, but once you beat their press, they get exposed a little bit. And the Mountaineers are not good outside shooters (32 percent on 3s.)
It’ll be a lot closer than people think. Bob Huggins is a great coach — he’ll try to shorten the game. When I coached against Huggins, his first year at Cincinnati, my fifth year at Xavier, we had a lot better players, but he held the ball.
But Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns dominate the paint offensively and defensively. Kentucky by 6.
WICHITA STATE over NOTRE DAME: The Shockers come back from Fantasy Island after their monumental victory over Kansas. A great battle of point guards between Fred VanVleet and Jerian Grant. The Shockers’ perimeter game with VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton is one of the best in college basketball. The Irish can’t stop the Shockers’ dribble penetration, and the Shockers defend Notre Dame’s 3-point shooting.
ELITE 8
KENTUCKY over WICHITA STATE: For Wichita State to win, Baker has to nail six or seven 3s, and VanVleet has to knife through the defense like a tailback running through the line and get into the heart of Kentucky’s defense, then dump it down for the big guys or kick it out for wide-open shots. The Shockers have to try to get Cauley-Stein or Towns in foul trouble. A revenge game for last year’s unbeaten team losing to Kentucky in the third round.
Kentucky’s size and talent and depth inside wears down the Shockers.
West
WISCONSIN over NORTH CAROLINA: The Badgers will anesthetize North Carolina with their patient swing offense — I don’t know what the word means but I hope it applies. Frank Kaminsky takes over the game with his inside-outside attack and Josh Gasser slows down Marcus Paige.
ARIZONA over XAVIER: I coached Arizona coach Sean Miller when I was assistant coach for the USA team at the World University Games in Sheffield, England, in 1991. I coached Xavier coach Chris Mack in the early ’90s when I was the head coach at Xavier. T.J. McConnell, the glue guy for Arizona, is the difference. Center Kaleb Tarczewski slows down Matt Stainbrook.
ELITE 8
ARIZONA over WISCONSIN: The best game of the tournament. Double overtime. Wisconsin has a great basketball I.Q., but the cagey McConnell is the smartest guy on the court. Arizona’s defense slows down Wisconsin. Arizona’s athletic forwards — Brandon Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson — cause trouble for the Badgers. Sean Miller goes small and brings in zone-buster Gabe York off the bench for Tarczewski and have the quicker Ashley guard Kaminsky.
South
DUKE over UTAH: Jahlil Okafor takes over the game. Utah’s Delon Wright has a big game, but Duke has too much offensive firepower.
GONZAGA over UCLA: This is Mark Few’s best team. The Zags are too deep and talented on the front line. Przemek Karnowski and Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis are the most talented big men trio in college hoops. UCLA guards Bryce Alford and Norman Powell get their points, but this game is won in the paint and on the boards.
DUKE over GONZAGA: Some of the Zags think defense is something you put around D house to keep out D dogs and D cats. Okafor dominates the slow-footed Gonzaga frontline. Quinn Cook continues his hot shooting from 3-point land, and the Duke Invitational continues.
Final four
KENTUCKY over ARIZONA: Arizona will have to score quickly in its transition game before Kentucky’s defense gets set. If not, McConnell will have to be like he’s in Carnegie Hall conducting the symphony and controlling the tempo. The problem is they’re not a great outside shooting team. They’ll have to make 11 or 12 3s, which they don’t do normally.
The way to beat Kentucky is to zone them. They don’t attack a zone great most of the time … slow the game down … and you gotta shoot out of your mind from downtown, and shorten the game … put them to sleep. McConnell will have to play the game of his life. But Arizona just plays man-to-man, and they don’t shoot great. Kentucky wears them down inside.
MICHIGAN STATE over DUKE: The Spartans will beat up Duke. How the game is called is crucial. Okafor will get his points, but not enough.
Championship game
KENTUCKY over MICHIGAN STATE: Michigan State will try to run, then they’re gonna play cat-and-mouse. Tom Izzo has more plays than Shakespeare, so he’s going to have to pull it out, and try to put them to sleep. Trice has to control the tempo, score on pick-and-rolls, knock down some 3s. Bryn Forbes has to nail 3s off the bench. They don’t zone, which is unfortunate. The Spartans have good athletes — they just don’t have enough of them.
It’s Kentucky’s world, and we’re just passing through it. Kentucky, 62-57.