CLEVELAND — Nothing has changed since the NCAA Tournament began last week. Nothing really has changed since November. Kentucky remains the favorite to win the national championship, needing four more wins to complete the first undefeated season in 39 years.
If the Wildcats play their best — beginning Thursday against West Virginia in the Sweet 16 — the title is theirs, immediately earning them a place as one of the best teams of all time.
But unbeatable is a perception rarely taken into retirement.
For months, the moments that stand out most in sports history have been ignored, the images of Mike Tyson on the mat pawing at his mouth guard and Sonny Liston refusing to come off his stool, of the Soviet Union desperately chasing pucks across the ice.
There is David Thompson ending a seven-year UCLA reign, Lorenzo Charles slamming the door on Phi Slama Jama and Anderson Hunt’s missed 3-pointer erasing the invincibility of UNLV — college basketball’s last unstoppable team.
Vulnerability always exists, but it usually can’t be seen until it is over.
Here are five ways Kentucky could fall short of its seemingly inevitable immortality:
Make its guards be the stars
The Wildcats have more 7-footers than most conferences and can’t be matched down low. The quartet of Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Dakari Johnson shoot better than 53 percent combined from the field, but the backcourt of Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis hit slightly more than 37 percent of their shots from the field combined this season. In two tournament games, the guards have become a bigger problem, making just 7-of-24 3-pointers, while consistently unable to match the physicality or energy of their opponents. The backcourt is still among the nation’s best, but is a much better bet to struggle shooting than the bigs.
Get to the line
Kentucky’s incredible depth allows the team to avoid fatigue, but also is key in that two quick fouls to a star cannot derail the season like it can to other teams. So, while an opponent won’t benefit from attacking one particular player, initiating contact is the best way to negate the country’s most intimidating defense. The Wildcats, prone to fouls because of their aggression, allowed Cincinnati and Hampton to shoot a combined 29 second-half free throws in the two tournament games. Texas A&M excelled at this strategy in January’s double-overtime loss, but missed 14 of its 30 free throws.
Make it rain
One incredible offensive performance — á la Villanova over Georgetown in 1985 — is the best slingshot in a single-elimination tournament. Multiple teams with superior shooting — Duke, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Notre Dame — could put Kentucky on the ropes. Duke hits nearly 40 percent of 3-pointers, while the well-rounded offenses of Gonzaga and Wisconsin would create problems inside and out, with Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin and Kyle Wiltjer of Gonzaga able to force the Wildcats’ big men to leave the paint and defend on the perimeter.
Turnovers
Points in transition is another way to minimize the impact of Kentucky’s defense. The Wildcats have seen many things this season, but little full-court pressure. West Virginia has caused 40 turnovers in its two tournament games and will make the Wildcats work for 40 minutes, capable of taking advantage of the Harrisons’ low motors and carelessness with the ball, as well as Ulis’ inexperience. Against 16th-seeded Hampton, Kentucky committed 13 turnovers despite little pressure and significant athletic advantages.
Pressure
Coach John Calipari claims the kids feel no pressure, but the stakes only grow with each win. If they reach the Final Four, the undefeated season is all that will be discussed. Every second a game remains close cloaks the next second with even more pressure, with the opponent playing the much-embraced underdog role with nothing to lose. The previous months would no longer matter, with the players knowing a season of unmatched excellence could be defined by failure.