Yankee Stadium will be half-empty by July. Ratings on YES will reach an all-time low. Radio dials will be allergic to WFAN during Yankee games because the club stinks.
Or everybody in pinstripes stays away from extended DL stints, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda combine for 90 starts, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann vastly improve from a year ago, Didi Gregorius makes people forget about the guy he replaced and David Robertson isn’t missed the way Robinson Cano was last season.
Now which way are you going to bet?
Monday at Yankee Stadium against the Blue Jays, the Yankees start a season that has a lot bigger chance to be a nightmare than a dream. That dream is alive because it’s Opening Day. But that dream was alive the last two Opening Days, and the Stadium was dark in October.
“If we stay healthy, I expect us to be on top of the division,’’ Sabathia said. “We definitely have the talent here. It’s just a matter of us staying out on the field. It’s encouraging that everybody came out of spring training healthy and feeling good. Hopefully we can carry that into the season.’’
Outside of fifth starter Chris Capuano (quad) and backup infielder Brendan Ryan (calf), the Yankees didn’t suffer a significant injury while baking in the Florida sun for six weeks.
So, they enter the season relatively healthy, and Adam Warren is an upgrade over Capuano.
Alex Rodriguez, who will DH upon his re-entry into the big leagues after being suspended for the entire 2014 season for being involved in the Biogenesis mess, likes the fact that no sane person is picking the Yankees to win the watered-down AL East.
“We are an under-the-radar team and I like that,’’ said Rodriguez, whose 39-year-old body that houses two surgically repaired hips held up during spring training but faces the grind of the regular season.
The reason the Yankees aren’t considered a postseason club is there are too many question marks that have to be answered with positive answers.
Begin with Tanaka’s right elbow, which didn’t undergo Tommy John surgery, Sabathia’s right knee, which was operated on last season and limited him to eight starts and Pineda’s right shoulder and immaturity. Move to Teixeira’s body (35 on Saturday) and Carlos Beltran’s body, which turns 38 on April 24.
“Our guys watched him through the spring, and they said he wasn’t moving around very well at all,’’ an NL executive said of Beltran, who underwent right elbow surgery last September and who had right knee surgery five years ago.
Then there is the matter of Robertson’s replacement. Joe Girardi might not decide between Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances until the late innings Monday about who will close against the Blue Jays. And that assignment might not go to the same guy Wednesday night.
Two years ago, Robinson Cano was allowed to leave via free agency. This past winter, Robertson used the same vehicle to split. The Yankees offense suffered without Cano, and hitting coach Kevin Long was boxed. Since Robertson is among the premier closers, whichever way Girardi goes likely won’t be as good as retaining Robertson would have been.
On the plus side, Teixeira says he isn’t dealing with any physical problems.
“It’s great to just worry about playing the game instead of staying healthy,’’ said Teixeira, who has battled wrist issues. “It’s been a tough two years. I can finally let it go and do what I’m used to doing at the plate.’’
Brian McCann believes the 2015 Yankees are better than the 2014 edition. Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees’ best player a year ago, is looking forward to erasing last season.
“I’ve been to the playoffs a lot in my career, and I don’t like not getting there,’’ Ellsbury said. “Now we can try to put 2014 behind us and have a fresh start. I like our chances.’’
A half empty Stadium by July. Or the Yankees winning the AL East. Which way you going to bet?
Additional reporting by Dan Martin