Broadway is as restless as a backer at an opening. It’s as jumpy as Bill Nighy on a stage. Oscar Hammerstein II would say it has Tony fever, and that’s why it’s my favorite time of year.
As the April 23 cutoff date approaches, the jockeying for nominations is heating up.
Monday’s strong reviews for “An American in Paris” surprised many Broadway insiders. They thought the critics would dismiss the musical as old-fashioned.
But now everyone is saying it’s a shoo-in for a nomination for Best Musical.
And what of the other three — or possibly four — slots?
The buzz is strong for “Something Rotten!,” a cheeky show set in Shakespeare’s London. And “Fun Home” comes to Broadway on a wave of strong reviews from the Public Theater.
Both will make the cut.
As for the fourth slot, we’ll know more Thursday when the reviews come out for “Finding Neverland,” Harvey Weinstein’s bid to be a modern-day Florenz Ziegfeld.
If they’re tepid, look for “The Visit” to rise up. It’s the last show John Kander wrote with Fred Ebb before Ebb died, and it may well be Chita Rivera’s farewell to Broadway.
It has sentiment on its side.
The Best Musical category can expand to five slots if a show receives three votes or fewer votes than the fourth nominee. If that happens, I expect nods for both “The Visit” and “Finding Neverland,” though it’s possible the shuttered “Honeymoon in Vegas” or “The Last Ship” could put in a surprise appearance.
The race for Best Musical this spring will be a race to stay alive.
None of the potential nominees is a “Wicked” or “Lion King”-size blockbuster.
“Finding Neverland” has the largest advance sales — nearing $10 million, I believe — but that’s nowhere near the advance for something like “The Book of Mormon” (said to be more than $25 million).
“An American in Paris” took in about $300,000 the day the reviews came out. That does not a blockbuster make, though one veteran producer says, “In this season, that qualifies as a banner day.”
Sales are growing for “Something Rotten!” due to strong word of mouth, but we’re not talking Fort Knox. “Fun Home” and “The Visit” will need good reviews — and nominations — to put up a fight.
If “Finding Neverland” is nominated, watch for Weinstein to spend a fortune chasing the Tony. No one else on Broadway this season has his resources.
But he must deploy his millions wisely and tastefully. Tony voters will look askance at splashy displays of wealth.
Far better to pony up tables and donations to all those theater charities that will have their tin cups out in May.
You can buy a Tony, Harvey, but you have to pretend it’s for art.