This was spring training 2014, the visitor’s dugout at Tradition Field. I was chatting with Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and attempting a tortured point: That if I were in charge of a team and the rules were the current rules, I would be doing exactly what he was doing. Yet, what he was doing appalled me.
Luhnow took over in December 2011, and he implemented a 76ers plan well before the 76ers did. The Astros essentially tanked three straight seasons (2011-13), losing 106, 107 and 111 games, respectively — the 324 losses the second-most ever in a three-year period to the 1962-64 expansion Mets (340). There was no sense being 90-loss bad when 100-loss bad netted the top draft pick each year and greater financial allotments to sign those picks and for the international market. Meanwhile, the payroll was lowered and time was bought to incubate a farm system.
It simply felt antithetical to professional sports to throw seasons. Nevertheless, with rules that benefitted such a ploy and the big picture in mind, Luhnow — a major force behind a superb Cardinals farm system — believed the payoff would be a bevy of young talent that would ultimately make winning sustainable.
Are the Astros there yet?
The Astros entered Monday with a 10-game winning streak. They had the majors’ best record (18-7) and the franchise’s best record ever after 25 games (they lost to Texas, 2-1 on Monday). They have the majors’ largest division lead (seven games), and one reason their success may be sustainable is the Angels and Mariners, in particular, were under-performing and no AL West team was even .500.
In an email exchange, Luhnow conceded the obvious: His team is unlikely to continue a 112-win pace.
But he added, “If we stay healthy, we should be in the race all year.”
This from a team that even last year, when it did not finish last, wound up fourth with 92 losses, 28 games out of first. In the offseason, the Astros bulked up, but seemingly on second- and third-tier players such as Evan Gattis, Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena, Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. But that haul combined with their rising youngsters have created quality and depth.
The Astros knew their lineup would swing and miss a lot, but the trade-off they believed would be power and speed. They lead the majors in strikeouts, homers and steals and are averaging just fewer than five runs per game. Jose Altuve is a hit machine (39 more than anyone else since the beginning of last season) and center fielder Jake Marisnick is rising, though his .382 average was bolstered by an unsustainable batting average on balls in play. Meanwhile, Houston’s reconfigured bullpen had gone from an MLB-worst 4.80 ERA in 2014 to the top five at 2.15.
There is an overall improvement in defense, a better environment under cerebral new manager A.J. Hinch, and one of the best prospect cards to play in shortstop Carlos Correa (1.148 OPS at Double-A) — though Luhnow is waiting for now even with Lowrie out a few months with a torn thumb ligament.
But do the Astros have starting pitching? Dallas Keuchel and former Met Collin McHugh have shown last year’s breakouts were no flukes. But the rest of the rotation is pedestrian (Scott Feldman, Roberto Hernandez) or worse and no ready answers exist in the minors. As one opposing assistant GM said, “I don’t think it is sustainable because they lack starting pitching depth. They have been hot now, but over the course of the season the lack of starting pitching will hurt them.”
Even Luhnow acknowledged, “the back end of our rotation is the area of most concern, and we will try to mix and match internally or go external if that doesn’t work.”
The organizational goal was to get above .500 in 2015. But maybe strong play and poor showings by division rivals will allow more. Will the Astros use some more of their pieces accumulated from tanking to augment this club or continue to think big picture?
Ethier nailing his Hollywood trade audition
Throughout the offseason and spring training, the Dodgers let teams know they would turn the three years at $56 million remaining on Andre Ethier’s contract down to three years at $24 million (eating $32 million). They tried to sell teams on getting a bargain — if Nick Markakis could get four years at $40 million from the Braves, shouldn’t a comparable player be worth three years at $24 million.
The industry, though, rejected this theory. Ethier’s trend line was bad — 20 homers in 2012 down to 12 to four last year and a OPS plummeting to .691 as he lost his starting job in 2014. There were also questions about Ethier’s passion. But maybe the Dodgers were right that clubs were missing a bargain.
With Matt Kemp traded and then starting corner outfielders Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig landing on the DL, Ethier has regained a starting job and responded with four homers in 60 at-bats and a 1.017 OPS. This is helping the Dodgers now — and maybe later. Eventually Crawford and Puig will return, and in S cott Van Slyke, Alex Guerrero and Chris Heisey, Los Angeles has other outfield pieces who can play. Thus, the Dodgers almost certainly are open to moving Ethier if clubs buy into his start and want to obtain him.
‘Split’ opinions on Pelfrey revival
Mike Pelfrey’s first two seasons away from the Mets and with the Twins were disastrous. He pitched terribly in 2013 (his first season after Tommy John surgery) and lasted five starts in 2014 as elbow and shoulder problems, in particular, derailed him. His cumulative 5.56 ERA in that span was the second worst in the majors (minimum 175 innings).
The only reason the righty – drafted by the Mets two picks before Andrew McCutchen in 2005 – was even with Minnesota was because he was owed $5.5 million in 2015. Scouts noted during the spring he was throwing his splitter more often and better, but the Twins decided not to include him in the season-opening rotation. Pelfrey suggested he wanted to be traded, but then rescinded that.
An injury to Ricky Nolasco and poor performance elsewhere put Pelfrey back in the rotation, and the improved splitter to go along with 2.5 mph more average velocity (back up to 93) with greater movement has helped Pelfrey open 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in five starts. Twins assistant GM Rob Antony cited the fastball/splitter combo, but said the biggest reason for Pelfrey’s early success is “he is finally healthy and has his confidence back.”
It should be noted, however, that in his last start, Pelfrey was staked to a 7-0 lead against the White Sox and did not make it out of the fourth inning.