The cap-stressed Rangers are going to be more concerned about a rival coming in with an offer sheet on Group II winger J.T. Miller than they will be with the low-wattage free-agent market that opens Wednesday at noon.
That’s because the already stripped down Presidents’ Trophy winners essentially have pennies on the dollar to invest in roster reconstruction and would find themselves severely compromised if forced to match a more lucrative offer on the 23-year-old, whom the Blueshirts have penciled into the lineup on a one-year qualifying offer worth $874,130.
Miller, projected into the top six as the outgoing Martin St. Louis’ replacement, does not have salary-arbitration rights. Absent an offer sheet, he has zero leverage. Absent that leverage, Miller either would play for the qualifying offer or not play at all. There isn’t going to be any type of compromise two-year bridge deal here.
An offer sheet of up to $1.826 million per year would come at a potential compensatory cost of a third-round draft choice. The Rangers essentially would have no choice but to match. But the extra million would further hamstring a management that is counting every cent, thus making such a gambit a worthy one by a conference competitor.
A more expensive offer sheet — say in the range of $2.5 million to $3 million per on a multi-year deal, with a second-rounder as compensation — would be extremely difficult for the Blueshirts to match, but would seem quite pricey (and likely unrealistic) for a winger with 15 goals in 114 career games.
But if that should somehow eventuate, oh boy.
The Rangers enter free agency with a roster of two goaltenders, six defensemen and 10 forwards under contract who account for approximately $61.375 million of the $71.4 million cap. Those numbers include the qualifiers for Miller, Emerson Etem ($850,500) and Jesper Fast (also $850,500).
That would leave just more than $10 million of space for the Rangers to complete the roster by adding another center, two more wingers and at least one more defenseman — with at least $6 million of that quarantined for Derek Stepan, who is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. It is safe to assume that a long-term deal will come in at between $5.7 million and $6.4 million per for the 1A/1B center who had the best playoffs of his five-year career.
So that leaves the Rangers around $4 million with which to add the remaining pieces. If, hypothetically, winger Oscar Lindberg ($708,750 qualifying offer) and defenseman Dylan McIlrath ($850,500) — both would have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the AHL — fill two of the holes, that would leave the Blueshirts with just under $2.5 million for another forward and a veteran defenseman. Incumbent seventh defenseman Matt Hunwick is headed to the market.
And honestly, the Rangers are going to have to keep about a million in their pockets for a rainy day. And that would be the million they don’t want to have to spend on matching an offer sheet to Miller.
Which is to suggest that management is going to be sifting through the bargain bins when the free-agent doors open, even in the aftermath of St. Louis’ $5.625 million coming off the books and of the cost-cutting trade in which Carl Hagelin went to Anaheim for Etem.
Hagelin was the team’s top penalty killer. He invariably would be on the ice in the final minute with the Rangers protecting a one-goal lead. He meshed extremely well with Kevin Hayes on the third line.
But beyond that, beyond disruptive speed on both the forecheck and backcheck, Hagelin’s 32 even-strength goals over the last two seasons ranked second on the Rangers to Rick Nash’s 52. (Mats Zuccarello had 29, Chris Kreider 25, Derick Brassard 24 and Stepan 23.) Hagelin’s 34 goals overall tied for fourth with Zuccarello, trailing Nash’s 68, Kreider’s 38 and Brassard’s 37.
And though the 23-year-old Etem is the more physical player and does have upside to his game, it is foolhardy to suggest that Hagelin’s departure hasn’t created a huge hole up front for the Blueshirts, who sure don’t have the cap space to patch it — or any other tangible need — in free agency.