The Big 12 playoff hopes were supposed to reside in Texas, in either Waco or Fort Worth. After injuries and defense-averse tendencies dented TCU’s and Baylor’s title hopes, attention shifted to Stillwater and Oklahoma State.
Close, but still not the right place. The power conference’s only true playoff contender is Oklahoma. Oklahoma State remains unbeaten, but the Cowboys’ in-state rivals are the real contenders.
There is nothing Big 12 about them, from their quality non-conference schedule to their underrated defense. The College Football Playoff Committee loves wins against teams .500 or better, and the Sooners have four of those.
Yes, Oklahoma has a bad loss, a seven-point neutral site defeat to 4-6 Texas on Oct. 10. But the playoff committee seems to favor good wins over bad losses, considering Ohio State got in last year despite its loss to Virginia Tech, and Alabama has been near the top of the rankings this year despite its ugly setback to Ole Miss.
Moreover, there were circumstances that contributed to Oklahoma’s defeat. It was the Red River Rivalry, no ordinary conference game, and Texas was playing on emotion following an ugly 50-7 loss to TCU.
The Sooners’ résumé, at the moment, is strong, and it could get even stronger, with games remaining against TCU and Oklahoma State. They became the first team to win at Baylor in more than three years Saturday night, snapping the Bears’ 20-game win streak in Waco, and unlike TCU and Baylor, it has a quality non-conference win at 6-4 Tennessee. And Oklahoma actually plays defense, a concept foreign to the rest of the conference. The Sooners are 24th in the country in total defense, allowing 19.7 points per game, and shut down Baylor’s potent aerial attack on Saturday, limiting Heisman Trophy candidate Corey Coleman to season lows of three catches for 50 yards.
Most importantly, led by emerging Heisman candidate quarterback Baker Mayfield, they have the look of a contender, winning their last five games by a combined 286-84.
Hurdles, however, remain. Oklahoma got plenty of help with the Pac-12 all but bowing out of the playoff, as Stanford and Utah both lost late Saturday night. Notre Dame stands in the Sooners’ way, though the Irish travel to Stanford on Thanksgiving weekend, when they will be the underdogs.
The Sooners have work to do, have to beat TCU at home on Saturday and win at Oklahoma State the following week. No easy task. But if they can win out, and there is no reason they can’t based on what we have seen over the last five weeks, the Big 12 should be part of the playoff after last year’s snub.
South Least Conference
Alabama is clearly a title contender, clearly one of the best teams in the country, clearly belongs in the playoff if it wins out. But before we anoint the Crimson Tide, let’s take a look at the SEC — the most overrated conference in the country this year.
Remember that vaunted SEC West? Arkansas, which lost to Toledo and Texas Tech, might finish second. The SEC East winner is Florida, which is a woeful offensive team and has a number of ugly wins over underwhelming opponents such as Vanderbilt, Eastern Carolina and Kentucky.
LSU — admittedly one of our playoff picks — has been exposed, dropping its last two games by a combined 61-30 to Alabama and Arkansas. Ole Miss was hammered by Memphis, which is in third place in the AAC West.
Remember this if — or when? — Alabama loses in the playoff again.
Heisman watch
RB Derrick Henry, Alabama
How do you go from off the radar and into the catbird’s seat? Four consecutive games of at least 143 rushing yards, an average of 6.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns will do it.
RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford
Stanford’s playoff hopes were crushed by Oregon, but McCaffrey’s Heisman hopes should remain alive after he produced 244 all-purpose yards in what is now becoming a typical Saturday for the sophomore.
QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Since an ugly loss to Texas, the junior has thrown 17 touchdowns and one interception in five straight wins, elevating Oklahoma into the playoff picture and making his case for a New York City invite.
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
That heavy workload is catching up to Fournette. So are LSU’s struggles, which is limiting his touches.
QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
The statistics — 26 total touchdowns, 69.7 completion percentage, 2,230 passing yards, 598 rushing — are impressive, but the most important number — victories — is what really stands out. He’s started 15 games in his college career and won 13 of them.
Top 10
1. Clemson (10-0) (Last Week: 1)
Everyone’s allowed an off weekend, and this certainly was it as Clemson struggled with ACC punching-bag Syracuse.
2. Alabama (9-1) (3)
Is the Crimson Tide’s recent dominance a reflection of their prowess or the watered down SEC? We’ll find out in six weeks.
3. Ohio State (10-0) (2)
J.T. Barrett was back from his slap-on-the-wrist suspension, yet the Buckeyes continue to play down to the level of the opposition. There is something missing with Ohio State, and the rest of the regular season will reveal it.
4. Notre Dame (9-1) (5)
Imagine if the Irish were even remotely healthy? Considering all the critical losses to injury, it’s remarkable Notre Dame is even in the playoff race.
5. Oklahoma State (10-0) (6)
College Football’s Harry Houdini, the Cowboys are masters of escape. They have played five road games, and trailed in the second half of all of them. Of course, Oklahoma State has won each time also, as it did in rallying from 17 points behind to beat Iowa State.
6. Oklahoma (9-1) (NR)
The Sooners’ playoff odds remain long, but they sure are better now than they were Saturday afternoon, before that impressive road beatdown of Baylor.
7. Florida (9-1) (9)
Jim McElwain deserves to be at least mentioned in the National Coach of the Year race. He inherited a mess, lost his starting quarterback in October and has the Gators, who clearly still need more offensive talent, headed to the SEC title game.
8. Iowa (10-0) (NR)
The Hawkeyes just might be the most underwhelming 10-0 team in college football history, but they are 10-0 nonetheless and should remain undefeated until they get manhandled in the Big Ten championship game.
9. Baylor (8-1) (4)
If Baylor ever wants to reach the playoff, playing defense once in a while might be something to look into.
10. Michigan State (9-1) (NR)
Beat Ohio State and nobody will care about that ugly loss to Nebraska. Obviously, easier said than done.
Dropped out: LSU (7-2), TCU (9-1) and Stanford (8-2)