The greatest thing that could happen to Rivalry Week has been the slow realization that no great teams exist in college football this season. The nation is filled with the very good and the very exciting and the very lucky, constructing a collage of flawed contenders. Even the undefeated teams — Clemson and Iowa — have benefited from favorable schedules and are well out of earshot of any all-time conversations.
At first glance, it’s disappointing there is no marquee game to capture the spotlight this week, but it only means more games mean more. Nine matchups have playoff implications, with any loss almost assuring that team won’t play on New Year’s Eve.
For the second straight season, the playoff is setting up to be as controversial as its postseason forefathers, likely forcing the committee again to choose between a one-loss apple and a one-loss steak. Making matters potentially more complicated is Notre Dame, whose inclusion would require two conference champions to be left out.
For the Fighting Irish, a win against potential Pac-12 champion Stanford in their regular-season finale still might not be enough to move forward. Already hurt by the underachievments of USC and Georgia Tech, a Notre Dame win over the Cardinal would come against a three-loss team and leave Navy and Temple as the Irish’s only wins over ranked teams.
With a nightmare scenario again looming of having to decide between a brand name national power and a one-loss Big 12 champion, the committee will watch those fears disappear as Heisman Trophy candidate Christian McCaffrey runs over a Notre Dame defense allowing 168 yards rushing per game. Without running back C.J. Prosise and cornerback KeiVarae Russell, the Irish’s playoff hopes will be snuffed out at STANFORD (-4).
TEXAS (-1¹/₂) over Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are the better team, but rarely play that way away from home. This season, Texas Tech has averaged 59.7 points per game in Lubbock, but 29.5 points with a 1-3 record on the road.
HOUSTON (-1) over Navy: Neutral hearts naturally drift to Navy, but overwhelming logic points to the Cougars bouncing back from last week’s upset loss at Connecticut, with quarterback Greg Ward Jr. back under center.
Iowa (-1) over NEBRASKA: The Hawkeyes’ schedule is an affront to every other team in consideration for the playoff and their wins are as convincing as Steven Seagal playing Hamlet would be, but Iowa deserves some credit for its season — certainly more than this line gives, going against a team just trying to get to .500.
Oregon State (+35) over OREGON: Vernon Adams Jr. is finally healthy and the Ducks finally look like an offensive juggernaut, making an eighth straight Civil War victory a near-certainty. However, the Beavers haven’t lost to their rival by such a margin in a decade and should narrowly cover against a vulnerable Oregon defense, underestimating a team which hasn’t won since September.
Baylor (-1½) over TCU: For so long, this matchup looked as if it would serve as the de facto Big 12 title game, but Baylor needs help to get back in the playoff picture. The Bears will do their part against the Horned Frogs’ awful interpretation of defense, proving in a road win at Oklahoma State (with third-string quarterback Chris Johnson) that their top-scoring offense will thrive no matter who plays the most important position.
MICHIGAN (-2) over Ohio State: Just a few days ago (and for so much of the season), Urban Meyer’s and Jim Harbaugh’s first meeting looked like it might determine the Big Ten title and a playoff spot. Soon enough, it will.
Clemson (-17) over SOUTH CAROLINA: Home field won’t matter much when the stadium is empty by halftime. The Gamecocks, now 3-8 and without a win in more than a month, suffered their most embarrassing moment last week in a home loss to Citadel, looking like a team that has quit. I wonder where they learned that.
North Carolina (-6) over NORTH CAROLINA STATE: After an inevitable down week for the 10th-ranked Tar Heels’ offense, North Carolina is in no danger of being caught looking ahead to Clemson after losing 35-7 to their in-state rival last season.
AUBURN (+14) over Alabama: The Iron Bowl is the only game that matters to the Tigers this year because it can change the entire perception of their season. Alabama will leave with the win, but one or two game-changing trick plays will keep the final score closer than it probably should be.
Penn State (+11) over MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans keep almost every game interesting by playing at roughly the exact level as their opponent. Incredibly, with this win and a Big 10 title victory over Iowa, Michigan State would make the playoff because of a dropped punt.
Ucla (+4) over USC: Take the points in a battle between two inconsistent teams, where home field is rarely relevant.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (PK) over Mississippi: Dak Prescott’s final home game will provide a fitting end to a career which reminded the nation football still was being played in Starkville.
FLORIDA (+2) over Florida State: The Gators aren’t all that different from the tooth fairy. You never see them show up, yet the results are somehow there the next morning.
Oklahoma (-6½) over OKLAHOMA STATE: If Baker Mayfield figures out how to slide or run out of bounds, the Sooners are going to the playoff.
Best bets: Houston, Iowa, North Carolina
2015 record: 86-91-3; Best bets: 17-18-1
Last season: 139-122-2
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