When I saw David Price’s seven-year, $217 million contract featured an opt-out after three seasons, it reminded me of the scene from “Meet the Parents” when Greg Focker and Jack Byrnes — with Jack knowing Greg tried to fool the family with a fake cat, and Greg knowing Jack knows — race back to the Byrnes house.
Once Price’s agreement with the Red Sox is formally announced, it will initiate an intense race between Price and the Red Sox. The finish line? November 2018.
An opt-out sets up the team to compete against the player, the end game asking this: Which party will need each other more at the big moment? So far, in the most high-profile and high-stakes cases, the players are undefeated.
Look at what happened here in New York with CC Sabathia, the case most similar to Price’s. Much like it appears Price didn’t want to go to Boston but felt compelled by the Red Sox’s overwhelming offer, Sabathia overcame his reservations about the Yankees once they raised their bid to seven years and $161 million. Sabathia became a Yankee in December 2008, but the opt-out gave both sides an escape hatch.
Sabathia and his family wound up loving New York. By the end of 2011, it was apparent they didn’t want to go anywhere. However, Sabathia had pitched brilliantly up to that point in his contract, and the rest of the Yankees’ starting rotation hardly was deep enough to assure team leadership it could get by just fine without the big lefty. So while Sabathia technically never used his opt-out, he agreed not to use it in exchange for another guaranteed year at $25 million (that year being 2016) along with another $25 million for 2017 as long as Sabathia’s 2016 isn’t compromised by a left shoulder injury.
You know what has transpired since: Sabathia pitched very well in 2012 and terribly the subsequent three seasons. The team can dream on Sabathia’s encouraging September and on his head being in a better place following alcohol rehab, but we’re still talking about a pitcher with a chronic right knee condition and a long, recent history of poor performance who turns 36 in July.
Or look at Price’s fellow top free-agent pitcher this winter, Zack Greinke, who put together strong 2013 and 2014 campaigns and a brilliant one in 2015, making his opt-out an easy decision and catapulting him into an elite place where he’ll likely exceed Price’s annual average value. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw as their ace, but their rotation depth is so suspect, they’ve had little choice but to try aggressively to retain Greinke.
You know whose case could have been a notable win for the owners in this game? Alex Rodriguez’s. The parameters were different on this one. A-Rod had an opt-out seven years into his 10-year, $252 million agreement with the Rangers, and by the time he completed that seventh year, he was a Yankee. But the Yankees vowed during the 2007 season that, if A-Rod opted out, the Yankees — who enjoyed a “Texas discount” on A-Rod’s 2008 through 2010 seasons thanks to the payments the Rangers agreed to make in the 2004 swap — would let him sign elsewhere. The Yankees’ offense was pretty good at that juncture even without A-Rod, and perhaps they could’ve figured out a solution at third base. But ownership, concerned about fan happiness in light of Joe Torre’s departure as manager and intrigued by the possibility of A-Rod breaking Barry Bonds’ all-time home run record in the team’s pinstripes, caved and gave A-Rod a 10-year, $275 million deal.
In light of A-Rod’s renaissance 2015, this deal looks increasingly less awful; remember, the Yankees barely paid Rodriguez in 2013 and 2014 thanks to injury insurance the first year and A-Rod’s suspension the second. And of course, the Yankees got out of their first “home run bonus” this past season when A-Rod agreed to a $6 million charitable donation in the wake of tying Willie Mays.
Three other opt-outs come to mind:
1. A.J. Burnett left the Blue Jays after the third year of what could’ve been a five-year deal and signed a five-year contract with the Yankees in December 2008. The Blue Jays, exhausted by his high-maintenance ways and unwilling to compete with the Yankees’ dollars, didn’t try too hard to retain Burnett. That doesn’t mean they didn’t miss him, though. They wound up going 75-87 in 2009 and trading ace Roy Halladay after that season.
2. J.D. Drew left the Dodgers after two years of what could have been a five-year deal and signed a five-year contract with the Red Sox. The Dodgers were miffed that Drew exercised the opt-out, which in retrospect seems quite silly, and they didn’t make a serious effort to retain him. Which was a mistake. Drew helped the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series and played well for the first four years of his new contract.
3. Mariano Rivera might be the most notable example of an elite player not leveraging his opt-out at all, as was the case following the 2002 season. I bet most people don’t even remember this. Rivera stayed put because he pitched in just 45 games in 2002 due to injuries and because he already was the game’s highest-paid closer. There wasn’t much more room for growth. And Rivera largely was less combative than his contemporaries when it came to contract negotiations.
After the 2018 season, Price will be 33. How will he have performed? Will he be enjoying Boston? Will he be healthy? Just as relevant, how will the rest of the Red Sox’s starting rotation look?
Of course, the worst-case scenario calls for both sides to lose the race. For Price to be so lousy, or unhealthy, he has no choice but to pass on the opt-out to preserve his future earnings. And to preserve the Red Sox’s lack of payroll flexibility.
Let’s catch up on recent Pop Quiz questions:
1. From Charlie Muniz of Jersey City: In a 1970 episode of “The Odd Couple,” Oscar tells a boy he’s mentoring that he taught a famous pitcher how to throw a curveball. Name the pitcher.
2. From Gary Mintz of South Huntington: Name the former NL MVP who offers to deliver a baby in a commercial for esurance.
Pop Quiz answers:
1. Tom Seaver
2. Buster Posey
If you have a tidbit that connects baseball with popular culture, please send it to me at [email protected].