The Jets have taken care of their business the past three weeks. They have gone from 5-5 to 8-5, gone from middling to ascendant, gone from the crowded pile of teams listed as “in the hunt” for the AFC playoffs to, for the moment, the second wild card.
Oh, and they are playing as well as they’ve played in years, too.
That ought to be a good thing.
But there is a harsh reality waiting around the corner: It has become clear somebody in the AFC probably is going to reach what normally is seen as the magic number to make the tournament — 10 — and have to take those wins home with them as a consolation prize.
As a lovely parting gift.
What’s worse, for the Jets, is that it is entirely possible they could do exactly what they need to do the rest of the way — beat the Cowboys in Dallas this Saturday, stun the Patriots at home two days after Christmas, then win Rex Bowl II in Buffalo two days after New Year’s — and still be on the outside looking in.
Only one other team has won as many as 11 games and not made the playoffs since the league expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions prior to the 2002 season — the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady on Opening Day and still went 11-5 with Matt Cassel at the helm of the offense. And since the merger, only one other team — the ’85 Broncos — has stayed home with 11 wins.
“It’s what we were dealt, and the bed we made for ourselves,” Jets coach Todd Bowles said Monday. “We’ll just try and get better, take it one day at a time. We’ll be OK.”
Except they might not be. If the Chiefs, Steelers and Jets all finish 11-5, the Chiefs would go based on superior conference record and the Steelers would go based on the third tiebreaker, common opponents. And the prospect of that isn’t terribly far-fetched, when you consider whom the other guys have ahead of them:
Kansas City:
At Baltimore (presently in the tuck position).
Cleveland (in the tuck position since 1989).
Oakland (a blood rival — star this game).
Pittsburgh:
Denver (star this game, too).
At Baltimore (see above).
At Cleveland (see above).
Now, let’s set aside the any-given-Sunday mantra for a few moments (since, after all, that’s how you would have to navigate the Jets to 11-5, too) and simply look at things realistically, which is to say that even if the Jets get to 11 wins, the most critical games for them the rest of the way will be contested a thousand miles away from where they’ll be.
The Chiefs could face the same thing in Week 17 that the Jets will. Rex Ryan won’t be coaching the Bills that week as much as he will be mimicking the Army coach of the moment (who in recent years has had to try to sell his players that his entire season is but one game, against Navy). The Raiders, like the Bills, likely will have little to play for that week except to kneecap a hated foe. So that’s one out.
The other is this weekend in Pittsburgh, and though the Broncos gagged up a game against Oakland on Sunday, they still are fighting for a bye and, possibly, for home field. And though Brock Osweiler has had his moments … well, be honest: As a Jets fan who will moonlight as a Broncos fan this Sunday, would you rather have him or Peyton Manning throwing left-handed (and one-footed) in a game you might desperately need?
This is uncharted territory for the Jets, who 10 times in their history have reached 10 or more victories and have qualified for the playoffs all 10 times. The Giants know this frustration: It happened to them in 2010 (at 10-6), and also happened in 1988 (when they also finished 10-6, the sixth loss a bitter one in the season finale to the Jets).
Every team that hits 10 hits the same wall of irritation. After all, under the current playoff format in place since 2002, 141 teams have reached double-digit wins. All but nine have gotten in.
There have been worse injustices, of course. The 1967 Colts started the season 11-0-2, lost their final game to the Rams and went home, pushing the NFL to invent the whole idea of a wild card two years later. That will be of little consolation to the Jets, of course, if they go home early.
“I’m just rooting for our team,” Bowles said. “Everything else will take care of itself.”
Unless it doesn’t.