Next!
Unless something extraordinary happens, the presidential election will pit Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton. That much became clearer on Tuesday when New Yorkers voted overwhelmingly for the two — putting them just one election from the White House.
The other thing that has become crystal clear these past few months is that this election is all about the economy — “money” is a better way to put it. (National elections are always about the economy even though political pundits try hard to make it more complicated.)
I said last summer, when Trump announced his candidacy to widespread derision, that if he stayed on an economic message, he would be a formidable candidate. He did and he is.
And despite laughable lapses in judgment on other issues too numerous to mention here, it looks as though Trump will be the last Republican standing.
Now what?
The trouble for Trump and Clinton is that both now have to explain what they will do to earn people’s votes. “I will create jobs” just isn’t enough. They have to get past the sizzle of that message and start slicing into that issue’s meat.
And that’s where there is a problem. The US economy is teetering on the verge of another recession. And it is happening before we have even recovered fully from the last downturn.
Americans feel the economy in their paychecks. So, while the Federal Reserve can pretend that the economy is on “solid footing” — as Bill Dudley, the clownish president of the New York Fed, recently said — no politician would dare say that.
There isn’t enough space in this whole paper to explain all the problems that the US has. But let’s try a couple of the big ones:
- The federal debt: It’s already more than $19 trillion, and Washington has tried to cut the deficit by reducing spending, although annual deficits are still huge by historical standards.
Beggars like the US can’t be truly independent if they have to look over their shoulder every time a decision is made, wondering what debt-holders China and the Saudis will think.
And since we are already in a horrible debt position, there’s little chance that Washington will increase spending. So nix that as an idea for boosting the economy.
- Federal spending: So, Donald or Hillary might say, we’ll just cut government spending drastically to get the debt down.
OK, where? Let’s say they decide to get rid of the Census Bureau, an agency that I think has outlived its usefulness. That’ll put thousands of its employees out of work and many more people once Census stops giving contracts to outside companies.
Let’s cut the military? Or, at least, military benefits? That’ll have us dealing with millions of unemployed soldiers and justifiably angry veterans.
Cutting spending is a plan that sounds good until it happens.
- The “change the tax laws so everyone pays fairly” movement: I put this in the same category as Ask Santa Claus for Help. We’ve been talking about tax reform for years. It’s. Never. Gonna. Happen. There are too many special interests who’ve already bought and paid for Washington politicians.
I don’t know much about the flat tax movement, except that it purports to be a way to simplify the US tax system, make it fairer and increase revenue. And it might.
But is a lethargic economy like we are now in the proper time to run tax experiments that could very easily backfire and lead to an increase in the federal debt? No.
- The “develop new industries and bring some old ones back to the US” people: Let’s deal with the second one first. Sure, we can bring back manufacturing jobs, just as soon as Americans are willing to accept the low wages paid in Vietnam or Cambodia or India.
The problem is, Americans can’t live on a pittance — at least not in the lifestyle to which they’ve become accustomed. That’s being proven right now in the nationwide movement to raise the minimum wage.
How about new industries that can’t go overseas? Okay, which ones? We’ve already lowered our moral standards so that we can mine former vices like gambling and the use of marijuana.
What’s left? Can allowing hookers on every street corner bring in enough revenue to make this an acceptable industry? If you think about it, that’s one industry that would be difficult to outsource to other countries — although the tech geniuses in the virtual reality sector are trying.
- The stock market: Trump already knows that the stock market is in a bubble. Clinton couldn’t acknowledge that even if she wanted to — too much of her wealth and campaign money comes from Wall Street.
But I don’t think either understands that stocks are being kept artificially high on purpose by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and their friends.
The next president had better keep a close eye on stocks or his/her administration will start out with a bust.
You already know my solution: Change the rules on retirement accounts so that the economy can be stimulated when people are allowed to use the trillions of dollars that are socked away for things like real estate, which’ll trickle down to other industries.
So, Donald and Hillary, let’s hear some ideas.
Donald, let’s entertain some real proposals that will allow me to overlook your verbal gaffes and vote for you.
And Hillary, let’s hear what you’ve got so that I can forgive you for leading what can only be described as a seriously flawed life of swindles, influence-peddling and other infractions that would have landed the average American in jail.